HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher:  CU, +$.0150; SU, +$.14; WU, +$.0025; KWU, +$.0050. U.S./China agree to resume trade talks 
• What caught my eye: Pro Farmer estimates the U.S. corn crop at 13.4 bbu, using a 163.3 bpa national average yield and harvested acres of 81.8; USDA in August was 81.8; 169.5 bpa for a production of 13.9 bbu. Additional PRC SB tariffs pressured beans Friday 

·       For certain?  Volatility.  Trump says he & China going back to the table.  ASIA: Lower-Nikkei, -2.17%; Shanghai, -1.17%; Hang Seng, -1.91%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.40%; FTSE, -0.47%; CAC, +0.58%.  WALL STREET—Futures are Higher-- DOW, +186; S&P, +17.25; NAS, +78.25.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.44 @ $54.61; Gold:  +$2.80 @ $1,540; $ Index: +.303 @ 97.943

·       T-storm Weather®: Weekend rains were heavy within parts of the U.S. central and southern Plains, but limited elsewhere.  Scattered thunderstorms affect a wide area through Tuesday as a strong cool front approaches and passes, ultimately leaving most areas much cooler than normal over the next 10 days.  Some thunderstorms follow next weekend, but heavy rain is not expected beyond some pockets early this week

• CU, up $.0150 @ $3.6125; CZ, up $.0150 @ $3.6125.  Funds sell 10 K on trad worries      
• SU, up $.14 @ $8.5725; SX, up $.1375 @ $8.7025.  Funds: Sold 10 K SB, 6 K SBM, 5 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.06, +2; LY, $1.56
• WU, up $.0025 @ $4.7550; WZ, up $.0025 @ $4.78.  Fund buying on Friday totaled 2 K                  

CORN/SORGHUM

• Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent 55-57% v. 56% last week and 68% last year
• T-storm Weather®: following much cooler than normal temps into early Sep. for most U.S. corn, a seasonably-warmer period most likely follows in 10 to 14 days.  A freeze is not foreseen into at least mid-Sep.
• ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn dented gains ~16% from Aug. 18-25 to 46%.  However, corn dented this year as of Aug. 18 was only 15%; with cooler temps forecast, suggests potential for a significantly late start to harvest

·       ATI Research: Preliminary forecast of Sept-Nov U.S. corn exports is 350 mbu compared to 633 mbu last year (-45%)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent 52-54% v. 53% last week & 66% last year
• T-storm Weather®: following much cooler than normal temps into early Sep. for most U.S. soybeans, a seasonably-warmer period most likely follows in 10 to 14 days.  A freeze is not foreseen into at least mid-Sep.

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.9 mbu needed; 18.0 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: 0.50" to 1.00" of rain over the next 7 to 10 days maintains adequate soil moisture for wheat development in Western Australia, while limited rainfall intensifies drought in eastern areas

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLV19, +$0.44 @ $54.61; EBV, +$0.24 @ $59.59; EBV-QCLV, -.22; RBV,+.0077; NGV, +.032; HOV, +.0092

·       Chicago fell $.0220 on Friday to $1.3250; basis values were firmer: NYC, +$.0020 @ $.1250; Gulf, +$.0070 @ $.08; Dallas, +$.0020 @ $.0950; Tampa, +$.0070 @ $.1950; LA, +$.0020 @ $.2100

·       Ethanol RINs were lower with 2018’s off 2.50 at @ 7-11 and 2019’s 0.75 lower @ 15 -16 ½                                ​                                                   ​;      

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread was $.0041 lower on Friday, closing at $.3258/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &nbs​p;               

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.76 on Friday to $237.52 and is $1.17 lower versus the previous week   
• Cattle on Feed: Aug. 1 on feed, 100.2% (100.7% avg est.); July placed, 97.9% (100.0%); July Market, 106.9% (106.8%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 41-cents on Fri. to $78.67 and is $6.21 lower compared to week ago 

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.10 on Fri. at $75.94.  October futures were $3.000 lower & are $16.64 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather