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TRENDS Higher CN, Up 8, SN, Up 14, WN, Up 8

June 17, 2019 07:43 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Higher: CN, +$.0825; SN, +$.15; WN, +$.0825; KWN, +$.0825     
  • What caught my eye: Markets are sharply higher will pay close attention to planting progress on both corn and soybeans this afternoon
  • Central Bank meetings and public hearings on the Chinese tariffs highlight the week.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +0.03%; Shanghai, +0.20%; Hang Seng, +0.40%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.16%; FTSE, +0.13%; CAC, +0.20%.  WALL STREET—Futures are up--DOW, +33; S&P, +4; NAS, +22.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: -$0.29 @ $52.48; Gold:  -$7.30 @ $1,337$ Index-.0350 @ 97.537
  • T-storm Weather: Near- and above-normal rainfall of 2.00” to 4.50” affects the central U.S. over the next two weeks, especially from thunderstorm clusters in varying areas on each of the next 10 days.  Temps will be unseasonably cool across the northwest two-thirds over the next 10 days, followed by a sharply warmer period over June 25-30.  Thunderstorms occur with less frequency and coverage in the warmer period, but the point is that at least some thunderstorms continue (esp. central and north)
  • CN, up $.0825 @ $4.6125; CU, up $.0850 @ $4.6675.  Crop concerns encourage further Fund buying on Friday, 20 K                   
  • SN, up $.15 @ $9.1175; SQ, up $.1550 @ $9.1850.  Funds: Bought 6 SB, 3 SBM, sold 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.19, -9; LY, $1.65
  • WN, up $.0825 @ $5.4675; WU, up $.0850 @ $5.5050.  Funds were buyers of 2 K to close out the week           

CORN/SORGHUM

  • July 2019 corn futures on Friday posted a new contract high of $4.57 ¼ and closed $0.11 higher at $4.53
  • Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is projected to peg U.S. corn planting at 92-94% compared to 83% last week.  Good/Excellent crop condition ratings are estimated at 59-61% vs. 59% last week and 78% in 2018

·      T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms focus along the remnant of a cool front in the Delta and southeast third of the Corn Belt where 1.00” to 1.50” falls through Tuesday

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 51.5 mbu needed; 33.5 last week.  Milo—2.3 needed; 2.1 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report projected to peg U.S. soybean planting at 76-80% vs. 5-year avg. of 93%

·      T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms focus along the remnant of a cool front in the Delta and southeast third of the Corn Belt where 1.00” to 1.50” falls through Tuesday

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 34.7 mbu needed; 26.3 last week

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 17.4 mbu needed; 17.1 last week

·      T-storm Weather: Dry U.S. spring wheat turns wetter as a result of rain from Tue.-Wed. forward 

ENERGY

·      Lower: CLQ19, -$0.29 @ $52.48; EBQ, -$0.18 @ $61.83; EBQ-QCLQ+.07; RBQ, -.0090; NGQ, -.001HOQ, -.0055

·      Chicago ethanol up sharply, $.06125 on Friday to soared $1.60875; basis values were mixed: New York, +$.0375 @ $.14625; Gulf, +$.0375 @ $.09625; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.07125; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.16125; LA, -$.02125 @ $.18125  

·      Ethanol RINs were again firmer:  2018’s, +2.00 @ 14 -17; 2019’s, +2.125 @ 17 ½ -20                                      &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;             

·    ​  The July RBOB/July ethanol spread plummeted $.0484 on Friday to +$.0972/gal

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​;                      

  • Choice boxed beef was 13-cents higher on Friday to $222.23 but is still down 8-cents versus the previous week
  • Cash cattle trade remained scattered on Friday with just a few cattle selling in the North at $184 dressed

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 34-cents on Fri. to $81.95 and is 15-cents lower versus a week ago

·      CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.11 on Fri. to $79.46.  July futures plummeted $2.025 but are still $1.89 above the index    

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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