HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher: CN, $.0425; SN, +$.03; WN, +$.0625; KWN, +$.06 
• What caught my eye: When all the dust has settled, some are suggesting and likely rightly so, the weather will have a more significant impact on the market--PP revenue/acre versus a still uncertain MFP payment and potential for yield drag
• Futures are higher despite Fed comments on potential tarrif impact on growth.  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, -0.16%; Shanghai, +0.02%; Hang Seng, +0.32%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.83%; FTSE, +0.53%; CAC, +0.87%.  WALL STREET—Futures are up a fair amount--DOW, +170; S&P, +18; NAS, +56. EXTERNALS: July crude: +$.58 @ $58.49; Gold:  -$4.90 @ $1,281; $ Index: NA
• T-storm Weather: Occasional to frequent rains in the U.S. can be expected during the next 10 days except in the Delta region where a much drier period is developing.  U.S. HRW will experience several heavy rain amounts in already-wet region.  The drought in Australia continues to effect wheat, although Victoria should receive some moisture during the period. Moisture amounts in the EU and Black Sea will occur but the latter will then turn very warm for a period    
• CN, up $.0425 @ $3.94; CU, up $.0450 @ $4.03.  The Funds sold 10 K in reaction to the latest round of MFP           
• SN, up $.03 @ $8.2450; SQ, up $.0325 @ $8.3150.  Funds: Sold-- 5 SB, 2 SBM, 7 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.27, -1; LY, $1.43
• WN, up $.0625 @ $4.7650; WU, up $.06 @ $4.8450.  The funds sold 3 K on Thursday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       December 2019 corn futures closed at $4.08, the first such lower close since May 9^th and breaking a $.40 gain during that period

·       ATI Research:  Unshipped old crop sales fell 18 to 372 million bushels this week and are 33% below the 5-year average of 554 as they continue at a 6-year low. The unshipped book of 96 mbu to Far East destinations which accounted for approximately 950 million in exports the past two years is the 2^nd lowest in over 20 years

·       The 5-year average has corn planting progress for this coming week-end at 90% with an “average” week to week increase of 10 percentage points. Many are thinking 60-65% completed will be the result in Tuesday’s Crop Progress

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: This weekend’s 5-year average has 66% of the soybean crop planted with a week to week increase of 19 points. A 15-point increase to 34% seems probable. And would match 1993 while being 7 points ahead of 1995

·       November 2019 soybean futures closed at $8.47 ¼ Thursday, $2.00 ¼ below the year-ago daily close

·       New crop All Wheat commitments of 122 million bushels are up 61% from the corresponding 2018 week

• T-storm Weather: sees significant rainfall Mon-Wed next week, includes all of OK/TX as well as the Central Corn Belt
• O/S old crop SB sales record large at 435 mbu, up 22% from 2018.  Concern is 60% are for China; will the possible loss of the latter’s business be nearly offset by high Brazil premiums driving non-PRC business to the U.S.?

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLN19, +$0.58 @ $58.49; EBN, +$0.70 @ $68.46; EBN-QCLN, +.12; RBN, +.0122; NGN, -.008; HON, +.0039

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0175 lower yesterday at $1.3475; basis values were mostly firmer: New York, +$.0025 @ $.1125; Gulf, +$.0075 @ $.0775; Dallas, +$.0175 @ $.0875; Tampa, +$.0275 @ $.2175; LA, +$.0275 @ $.2675  

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer:  2018’s, +.25 @ 9-10; 2019’s, +.25 @ 13 ¾ - 14 ¼                              ​                         ​              

·   ​;    The June RBOB/June ethanol spread lost $.0609 on Thursdy, closing at+$.5633/gal       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                     ​;     

• Choice boxed beef was $1.21 higher Thursday at $220.79 and is up $1.23 versus last week 
• June live cattle futures on May 23 closed at $110.800, which is $0.325 higher compared to May 16. Today’s COF (versus a year ago): On feed seen at 102.9%; April Placements, +113.5%; April Marketings, 106.6%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $3.21 Thursday to $81.95 and is $3.21 lower versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index was down $.030 Thursday at $84.36.  June futures lost $0.450 and are $5.260 above the index 

 

Sources: Bloombeg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather