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TRENDS Higher CN, Up 5, SN, Up 5,WN, Up 9

May 16, 2019 07:55 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Higher: CN, $.0575; SN, +$.0525; WN, +$.09; KWN, +$.0675 
  • What caught my eye: Market continues to be dominated by near-term weather forecasts and much debate over what planting progress could show on Monday
  • U.S./China tensions remain; Trump to postpone auto tariffs up to 6 months.  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, -0.59%; Shanghai, +0.58%; Hang Seng, +0.02%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.53%; FTSE, +0.09%; CAC, +0.17%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher--DOW, +72; S&P, +9.50; NAS, +25.75.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.54 @ $62.56; Gold:  -$2.90 @ $1,295; $ Index: NA
  • T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms form along the NE-SD border and points east through the northern half of the Corn Belt tonight as a warm front stalls.  The front then continues to trigger thunderstorms in the same area Friday, followed by widespread thunderstorms within the northern and western halves of the central U.S. on Saturday when a large system passes.  Rain then continues north Sunday, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms across the east and south as the system exits
  • CN, up $.0575 @ $3.7525; CU, up $.0525 @ $3.8350.  Large fund buying again at mid-week on planting worries, 20 K         
  • SN, up $.0525 @ $8.4075; SQ, up $.0550 @ $8.4750.  Funds: Bot—12 SB, 6 SBM, 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.23, +3; LY, $1.65
  • WN, up $.09 @ $4.5775; WU, up $.0825 @ $4.6450.  The funds were buyers of an estimated 10 K yesterday                 

    CORN/SORGHUM

·      &n​bsp;Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 8-20 mbu for 18/19 corn and 4-16 mbu for 19/20

  • T-storm Weather: Following thunderstorms Sat.-Sun., more rain develops May 20-22; focus is on Corn Belt & Plains.  Setup then stays conducive to significant rain over May 23-30, especially across northwest two-thirds of central U.S.
  • Consultant: The weather for safrinha (double crop) corn in Brazil has been good; early harvest should start very soon     
  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,051,000 barrels/day for week end May 10; up 15 thou v. prior week but 0.7% below last year  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 4-15 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 100-250 K MT for 18/19 and 25-150 for 19/20; soyoil, 5-25 K MT for 18/19 (range for 19/20 is not available) 

  • T-storm Weather: Following thunderstorms Sat.-Sun., more rain develops May 20-22; focus is on Corn Belt & Plains.  Setup then stays conducive to significant rain over May 23-30, especially across northwest two-thirds of central U.S.

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 0-9 mbu for 18/19 all wheat and 6-13 mbu for 19/20

  • T-storm Weather: At least 1.00” of rain impacts the majority of Midwest U.S. SRW wheat over the next two weeks  

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLM19+$0.54 @ $62.56; EBN, +0.20 @ $71.98; EBN-QCLN-.34; RBM, +.0244; NGM, +.002HOM, +.0168

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01375 lower at $1.3250; basis values were firmer: New York, +$.00625 @ $.1300; Gulf, +$.01625 @ $.11005; Dallas, +$.00874 @ $.0700; Tampa, +$.01375 @ $.1850; LA, +$.01375 @ $.2500  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -.2500 @ 8 ¾- 9 ¼ 2019’s, -.3750 @ 13 ½-14 ¼                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                   

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread widened $.04 Wednesday and is trading at+$.6917/gal this morning      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY        &​nbsp;                  &n​bsp;           

  • ​ Choice boxed beef eased 5-cents on Wednesday to $219.57 and is down $3.44 versus last week 
  • Cash cattle trade occurred in the South and some areas in eastern Nebraska on Wed. at $117—$3 below last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.86 on Wed. to $85.11 but is still $2.08 higher versus a week ago 

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.40 on Wed. to $83.67.  June futures increased $2.70 and are $8.155 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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