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TRENDS Higher CN, Up 5, SN, Up 5, WN, Up 2

June 14, 2019 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Higher: CN, +$.05; SN, +$.04; WN, +$.02; KWN, +$.0250     
  • What caught my eye: Since May 1, CZ has risen $.72/19%, well above the amount of appreciation expected using the 2014-2018 seasonal price index of approximately $.50/13%--U.S. supply concerns mount
  • Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index posts largest one-month drop on record.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, +0.40%; Shanghai, -0.99%; Hang Seng, -0.65%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.69%; FTSE, -0.47%; CAC, -0.35%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower--DOW, -68; S&P, -11; NAS, -66.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude:-$0.17 @ $52.37; Gold:  +$14.40 @ $1,358$ Index+.040 @ 97.05
  • T-storm Weather: Unseasonable coolness breaks from west to east over the next two days as surface-level high pressure departs, leaving most areas seasonable for one or two days.  Scattered thunderstorms affect the central and southern Plains today, while a few swaths of rain affect the northern Plains today-Sat.  A cold front triggers thunderstorms across the southeast half of the central U.S. Sat.-Mon., producing 0.75”-1.50” across much of IL, IN, MO, OH, and nearby areas of KS, OK, and the northern Delta
  • CN, up $.05 @ $4.47; CU, up $.0375 @ $4.5150.  Heavy fund buying as crop worries escalate, 25 K                   
  • SN, up $.04 @ $8.92; SQ, up $.0425 @ $8.9875.  Funds: Bought 8 SB, 3 SBM, 6 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.28, 0; LY, $1.59
  • WN, up $.02 @ $5.3750; WU, up $.0125 @ $5.4025.  Wheat tags along with 6 K purchased by the funds          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       December 2019 corn futures on Thursday closed at $4.55 ¾—the highest settlement price for life of the contract

  • T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms develop within a wide area of central U.S. June 18-23, producing generalized rain totals of 0.50”-1.50” across northwest half & 1.00”-2.00” across southeast half, including much of Corn Belt & Delta
  • ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales are dn 55% from last year; only time in the past 30 years with a larger percentage year to year drop was 2012/13 when high prices & excellent South America crops cut into U.S. exports

·       USDA this week completes surveying producers in preparation for its Acreagereport—scheduled for release June 28

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 soybean export sales of 9.4 mbu for week end June 6 were dn 50% from last week & 44% vs. the 4-week avg.; however, unshipped export sales of 414 mbu are up 26% v. last year & a record for this time of year

  • T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms develop within a wide area of central U.S. June 18-23, producing generalized rain totals of 0.50”-1.50” across northwest half & 1.00”-2.00” across southeast half, including much of Corn Belt & Delta
  • ATI Research: Unshipped all wheat export sales as of June 6 were 212 mbu—up 37% v. last year 6% vs. the 5-year avg.

·       T-storm Weather: Rain Fri.-Sat. affects much of U.S. spring wheat; dryness slightly diminishes from 0.25”-0.75” totals

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLQ19, -$0.17 @ $52.37; EBQ, -$0.08 @ $61.23; EBQ-QCLQ+.14; RBQ, +.0052; NGQ, +.009HOQ, +.003

·       Chicago ethanol soared $.04125 to $1.5465; basis values were mixed: New York, -$.00625 @ $.14250; Gulf, +$.01375 @ $.0925; Dallas, -$.01625 @ $.0725; Tampa, -$.02625 @ $.16250; LA, +$.01875 @ $.2025  

·       Ethanol RINs were again firmer:  2018’s, +1.75 @ 13 -14; 2019’s, +1.00 @ 16 -17 ¼                               ​                         ​                    

<​p> ·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread was little changed, narrowing $.0032 to+$.1709/gal; trading $.1722 this am

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &​nbsp;         

  • C​hoice boxed beef eased a nickel on Thursday to $222.10 and is 15-cents lower compared to a week ago 
  • Cash cattle trade remained sluggish with a few cattle selling on Thu. in Texas at $112/cwt—$1 lower than last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.56 on Thu. to $82.29 and is up 13-cents versus last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.03 on Thu. to $79.57.  June futures gained $0.20 but are still $0.345 below the index    

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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