HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher: CK, +$.0225; SK, +$.0175; WK, +$.0575; KWK, +$.02
• What caught my eye: FWIW . . . could 09/10 be an analog corn year?  Big bearish surprise in the March stocks report, followed by a bullish June one, all due to “feed/residual” with CN10 soaring nearly $.30 the day of the June report
• Markets express hope a trade deal is on the horizon.  Asia: Higher-Nikkei, +0.97%; Shanghai, +1.24%; Hang Seng, +1.22%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +1.20%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, +0.63%.  WALL STREET—futures, higher!DOW, +105; S&P, +13.50; NAS, +42.00.  EXTERNALS: May crude: +$0.08 @ $62.66; Gold:  +$0.80 @ $1,296; $ Index, NA 
• T-storm Weather: Scattered showers affect the central / southern Plains, Delta, and southern two-thirds of the Corn Belt Wed.-Thu., producing 0.25”-0.75” (wettest in / near IA).  A larger and stronger system passes Sat.-Mon. and triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms, producing 0.50”-1.50” across a wide area.  Temperatures remain chilly through today, then turn sharply warmer as high reach the 50s-60s-70s-80s across a wide area over Thu.-Tue. (Apr. 4-9), or +5°F to +15°F from normal 

·       CK, +$.0225 @ $3.63175; CN, up $.0275 @ $3.7350.  The funds were even in Tuesday’s trading activity                   

• SK, up $.0175 @ $9.0175; SN, up $.0175 @ $9.1525.  Funds: Bought 3 SB; 2 SBM, 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.02, +3; LY, $1.54
• WK, up $.0575 @ $4.6975; WN, up $.0475 @ $4.7325.  The funds were also even in wheat          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is increased 1.0 MMT to 94.5 MMT.  Thesafrinha (double crop) corn in the north is going to do very well after beneficial rain; some concern about dryness in the south, but rain is forecast near-term

• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, above-normal rain of 2.00”-4.00” is forecast for safrinhacorn over the next 10-14 days

·       Ethanol margins: $0.08 per gallon—down vs. $0.14 last week & well below $0.39 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

• ATI Research: Much more corn export competition in ‘19; e.g. corn volume at Argentina ports: 84 mbu v. 51 last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 54.0 MMT.  Recent weather in Argentina has been on the wet side, which has slowed the dry-down of mature beans & led to a slow start to harvest; however, near-term forecast is drier

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a dry period dominates central soybean areas the next 10 days, favoring early harvest
• ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports next 4 weeks are forecast at 15-20 mbu per week compared to 18.1 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., at least 2.00” of rain impacts all SRW wheat over next 2 weeks; 3.00”+ possible in Delta

ENERGY

·       Firm:  CLK19, +$0.08 @ $62.66; EBM, +$0.34 @ $69.72; EBM-QCLM, +$0.22;RBK, +.0004; NGK, -.003; HOK, +0.0040

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.4 (+3.0); Gasoline, -1.5 (-2.6); Distillates, -0.5 (-1.9).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.963 mbpd (range: 0.935-0.986).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.840 mb (range 23.948-28.800)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00750 lower yesterday to $1.3225; basis, weaker: New York, -$.0250 @ $.15; Gulf, -$.00250 @ $.15250; Dallas, -$.02750 @ $.1825; Tampa, -$.02250 @ $.3075; LA, -$.01250 @ $.4975   

·       Ethanol RINs, mixed: 2018’s, +.25 @ 11 ½ -12 ½; 2019’s, -.25 @ 14-15                                    &​nbsp;             

·       The May RBOB/April ethanol spread popped out $.0396 Tuesday to+$.6005/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nb​sp;                  

• Choice boxed beef was $1.11 lower on Tuesday at $225.73, and is down $3.78 versus last week   
• Since posting a 10-month high on March 26, choice boxed beef has declined $3.78 (1.6%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 70-cents on Tue. to $80.04, but is 81-cents higher vs. a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.90 on Tue. to $76.70.  April futures gained $1.55 and are $2.25 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher: CK, +$.0225; SK, +$.0175; WK, +$.0575; KWK, +$.02
• What caught my eye: FWIW . . . could 09/10 be an analog corn year?  Big bearish surprise in the March stocks report, followed by a bullish June one, all due to “feed/residual” with CN10 soaring nearly $.30 the day of the June report
• Markets express hope a trade deal is on the horizon.  Asia: Higher-Nikkei, +0.97%; Shanghai, +1.24%; Hang Seng, +1.22%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +1.20%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, +0.63%.  WALL STREET—futures, higher!DOW, +105; S&P, +13.50; NAS, +42.00.  EXTERNALS: May crude: +$0.08 @ $62.66; Gold:  +$0.80 @ $1,296; $ Index, NA 
• T-storm Weather: Scattered showers affect the central / southern Plains, Delta, and southern two-thirds of the Corn Belt Wed.-Thu., producing 0.25”-0.75” (wettest in / near IA).  A larger and stronger system passes Sat.-Mon. and triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms, producing 0.50”-1.50” across a wide area.  Temperatures remain chilly through today, then turn sharply warmer as high reach the 50s-60s-70s-80s across a wide area over Thu.-Tue. (Apr. 4-9), or +5°F to +15°F from normal 

·       CK, +$.0225 @ $3.63175; CN, up $.0275 @ $3.7350.  The funds were even in Tuesday’s trading activity                   

• SK, up $.0175 @ $9.0175; SN, up $.0175 @ $9.1525.  Funds: Bought 3 SB; 2 SBM, 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.02, +3; LY, $1.54
• WK, up $.0575 @ $4.6975; WN, up $.0475 @ $4.7325.  The funds were also even in wheat          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is increased 1.0 MMT to 94.5 MMT.  Thesafrinha (double crop) corn in the north is going to do very well after beneficial rain; some concern about dryness in the south, but rain is forecast near-term

• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, above-normal rain of 2.00”-4.00” is forecast for safrinhacorn over the next 10-14 days

·       Ethanol margins: $0.08 per gallon—down vs. $0.14 last week & well below $0.39 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

• ATI Research: Much more corn export competition in ‘19; e.g. corn volume at Argentina ports: 84 mbu v. 51 last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 54.0 MMT.  Recent weather in Argentina has been on the wet side, which has slowed the dry-down of mature beans & led to a slow start to harvest; however, near-term forecast is drier

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a dry period dominates central soybean areas the next 10 days, favoring early harvest
• ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports next 4 weeks are forecast at 15-20 mbu per week compared to 18.1 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., at least 2.00” of rain impacts all SRW wheat over next 2 weeks; 3.00”+ possible in Delta

ENERGY

·       Firm:  CLK19, +$0.08 @ $62.66; EBM, +$0.34 @ $69.72; EBM-QCLM, +$0.22;RBK, +.0004; NGK, -.003; HOK, +0.0040

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.4 (+3.0); Gasoline, -1.5 (-2.6); Distillates, -0.5 (-1.9).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.963 mbpd (range: 0.935-0.986).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.840 mb (range 23.948-28.800)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00750 lower yesterday to $1.3225; basis, weaker: New York, -$.0250 @ $.15; Gulf, -$.00250 @ $.15250; Dallas, -$.02750 @ $.1825; Tampa, -$.02250 @ $.3075; LA, -$.01250 @ $.4975   

·       Ethanol RINs, mixed: 2018’s, +.25 @ 11 ½ -12 ½; 2019’s, -.25 @ 14-15                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp; 

·       The May RBOB/April ethanol spread popped out $.0396 Tuesday to+$.6005/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​       

• Choice boxed beef was $1.11 lower on Tuesday at $225.73, and is down $3.78 versus last week   
• Since posting a 10-month high on March 26, choice boxed beef has declined $3.78 (1.6%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 70-cents on Tue. to $80.04, but is 81-cents higher vs. a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.90 on Tue. to $76.70.  April futures gained $1.55 and are $2.25 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather