HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher: CK, +$.0150; SK, +$.0275; WK, +$.0250; KWK, +$.03
• What caught my eye: Trade expecting rather large corn and soybean export sales numbers this morning, well above the implied rate of 32 per week for the former and 16 for the latter
• Markets in a holding pattern, awaiting direction from trade discussions.  Asia: Mostly higher-Nikkei, +0.05%; Shanghai, +0.94%; Hang Seng, -0.17. EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.05%; FTSE, -0.56%; CAC, -0.29%.  WALL STREET—futures are weaker--DOW, -17; S&P, -1.75; NAS, -6.25.  EXTERNALS: May crude: +$0.07 @ $62.52; Gold:  -$0.20 @ $1,295; $ Index, -.077 @ 95.575
• T-storm Weather: Scattered showers affect central/southern Plains, Delta, & southern two-thirds of Corn Belt today, producing 0.25”-0.75”; wettest in/near IA.  A larger & stronger system triggers scattered showers & thunderstorms within a wide area Sat.-Mon., producing 0.75”-1.50” across Corn Belt & Delta, & 0.25”-0.75” in much of the Plains.  Two more systems then interact with a sharp north-south temp gradient Apr. 9-19, producing rain/thunderstorms with another 0.50”-1.50” expected for a wide area

·       CK, +$.0150 @ $3.6425; CN, up $.01 @ $3.73.  The funds bought 2 K at mid-week                   

• SK, up $.0275 @ $9.0150; SN, up $.0250 @ $9.1475.  Funds: Sold 2 SB & 2 SBO, bot 1 SBM.  Board Crush: $1.02, 0; LY, $1.62
• WK, up $.0250 @ $4.7350; WN, up $.0225 @ $4.7675.  The funds were active buyers, taking 5 K           

CORN/SORGHUM

·     ​  Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 28; trade expects 28-43 mbu for 2018/19 corn sales

• Consultant: In Argentina, corn harvest was 12.2% according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange as of late last week.  Early yields continue to be very good & above initial expectations; crop est. is 47.0 MMT (range: 45.0 to 49.0 MMT)

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, except for scattered thunderstorms today in northern late-corn areas, dry weather dominates through April 11, followed by an uptick in rainfall.  Drier weather should favor harvest of early planted corn  

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 999,000 barrels/day for week end March 29—up 24,000 v. prior week but down 3.8% v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week end March 28; trade expects 29-55 mbu for 2018/19 soybean sales

·       Consultant: In Brazil, soybean harvest is at 75.58% according to Safras & Mercado compared to 71.8% last year & 70.4% for the 5-year avg.  Remaining areas to be harvested are expected to have at least average-type yields

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, above-normal rain of 2.00”-4.00” over the next 10 days slows remaining soybean harvest

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 28; trade expects 11-22 mbu for 2018/19 wheat sales

·       T-storm Weather: At least 2.00” of rain impacts nearly all U.S. SRW wheat over next two weeks; heaviest in the south

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLK19, +$0.07 @ $62.52; EBM, +$0.01 @ $69.32; EBM-QCLM, -$0.06;RBK, -.0102; NGK, +.003; HOK, -0.0045

·       Chicago ethanol was $.02250 lower at mid-week to $1.3000; basis, weaker: New York, -$.0050 @ $.1450 Gulf, -$.00750 @ $.1450; Dallas, -$.0175 @ $.1650; Tampa, -$.0125 @ $.2950; LA, -$.0025 @ $.4950   

·       Ethanol RINs, mixed: 2018’s, -.25 @ 11 ½ -12  2019’s, +.1250 @ 14 ¼ -15                                                &nb​sp; 

·       The May RBOB/April ethanol spread was again wider, adding another $.0377 to+$.6382/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​            

• Choice​ boxed beef increased 41-cents on Wednesday to $226.14, but is still $2.85 lower compared to a week ago
• Light cash cattle trade started to develop Wed. in Texas & Kansas at $124 per cwt, generally $1 lower than last week     

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.41 on Wed. to $78.63, and is down 97-cents versus last week

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.92 on Wed. to $77.70.  April futures firmed $0.125 and are $1.375 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 

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