HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher: CK, +1; SK, -3/4; WK, -1; KWH,-2 ¾. Dely: SBM-181; SBO-91; RR-4; C-937; HRW-8; O-1;SB-578; SRW-22
• What caught my eye:  The USDA surprised the trade Friday, taking corn ending stocks up 100 mbu to 1.835 bbu; market sentiment called for a more modest 16 mbu increase and seem especially surprised by the 75 mbu cut in exports.
• Asia: Higher-Nikkei, +0.47%; Shanghai, +1.92%; Hang Seng, +0.97%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.23%; FTSE, +0.97%; CAC, +0.20%.  WALL STREET: well, mixed: DOW, -164; S&P, +3.25; NAS, +20.50.  EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.50 @ $56.57; Gold:  -$3.40 @ $1,296; Mar $ Index,+0.066 @ 97.355.  DOW sharply lower—Boeing—Ethiopian Airlines tragedy; ECB stimulus lifts Europe
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, cool fronts shift northward every few days & dissipate, triggering scattered thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times, & ultimately producing widespread coverage of near- & above-normal rainfall.  In Argentina, cool weather dominates over the next 2 weeks, leaving temperatures ideal for filling corn and soybeans going forward.  Some rains occur when weak waves of energy pass, namely in far-northern & southern areas Fri.-Sat., & across a wider area in 7 to 10 days

·       CK, up $.01 @ $3.65725; CN, up $.0125 @ $3.7475.  The funds sold 2 K Friday           

• SK, dn $.0075 @ $8.95; SN, dn $.0075 @ $9.09.  Funds: sold 6 SB and 4 SMB, even SBO.  Board Crush: $.98, -1; LY, $1.30
• WK, dn $.01 @ $4.3850; WN, dn $.0150 @ $4.46.  Funds bought 2 K to close out the week

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: If U.S. & China cannot reach a trade deal, USDA’s U.S. corn export forecast looks 100-125 mbu too high

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 55.2 mbu needed; 34.1 last week.  Milo—2.5 needed; 2.3 last week

·       Consultant: In Argentina, early corn yields are coming in very good in the range of 123 bpa to as high as 200 bpa.  Harvest is probably less than 5% complete

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, soil moisture over the next two weeks is forecast to remain adequate to favorable for safrinha (double crop) corn as reproductive phases approach and begin

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: In the U.S., more cold and snowy weather is fueling ideas of an eventual switch to more soybean acres

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 35.4 mbu needed; 31.0 last week

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, areas of surface-level high pressure pass every few days, leaving all areas moderately cooler than normal by 3°F to 6°F over the next two weeks, which is near-ideal for filling soybeans

·       ATI Research: Friday’s USDA report confirmed strong export competition for the remainder of the 2018/19 crop year

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 26.3 mbu needed; 16.2 last week 

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLJ19, +$0.50 @ $56.57; EBK, +$0.58 @ $66.32; EBK-QCLK, +$0.11; RBJ, +.0164; NGJ, -.070; HOJ, +0.0039

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.01725 to @ $1.28750; basis, firmer: New York, +$.00750 @ $.1150; Gulf, +$.0125 @ $.1125; Dallas, +$.00725 @ $.1425; Tampa, +.01225 @ $.26750; LA, +$.01725 @ $.2325   

·       Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +1.125 @ 17-17 ½; 2018’s, +1.1250 @ 20 -120 ½; 2019’s, +0.875 @ 22 -23                             ​;                

·  &nb​sp;    The April RBOB/April ethanol spread continues to move wide, gaining $.0153 on Friday to +$.5027/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &nbs​p;                     &n​bsp;      

• Choice boxed beef increased 9-cents on Friday to $226.13, and is $4.84 higher compared to a week ago
• Cattle on Feed: Feb. 1 on feed, 100.4% (100.2% avg est); Jan. placed, 94.7% (92.6%); Jan. Market, 102.8% (102.3%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 11-cents on Friday to $63.29, and is up $3.29 versus last week 

• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.04 on Friday to $51.71.  April futures soared $2.825 and are $8.84 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather