HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—(5:00 am)—Higher: CH, +$.0225; SH, +$.0425; WH, +$.04; KWH, +$.0325
• MACRO:  Brexit uncertainties have overseas markets mixed; U.S. futures are higher.  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, -0.55%; Shanghai,unch; Hang Seng, +0.27%.  EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.02%; FTSE,-0.37%; CAC, +0.30%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +60;S&P, +5.75; NAS, +1.25.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.19 @ $51.92;Gold: +$1.10 @ $1,290; Mar $ Index, -0.0458 @ 95.630 
• T-storm Weather: In South America, a new pattern begins this weekend.  Until then, only isolated thunderstorms dot central and northern Brazil, while scattered thunderstorms affect Argentina tonight and Thursday before ending; 5-7 days of drying follow in Argentina before some thunderstorms return Jan. 24-25.  Scattered thunderstorms initiate over Fri.-Sun. in central and northern Brazil and then continue (except for northeast fringe of corn and soybeans in/near Bahia and central and northern Minas Gerais)

·      CH, up $.0225 @ $3.7350; CK, up $.0250 @ $3.8225.  Heavy fund selling on Tuesday, estimated at 10 K             

• SH, up $.0450 @ $8.9750; SK, up $.0450 @ $9.1125.  Funds: Sold 6 K SB, 3K SBM & 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.98, +3; LY: $1.03 
• WH, up $.0375 @ $5.1475; WK, up  $.0350 @ $5.1950.  Management money accounts liquidated 3 K yesterday       

  CORN/SORGHUM

&​middot;      Consultant: Argentina corn production est. for 2018/19 is unch this week at 40.5 MMT.  Corn is 86% planted with approx. 7% of remaining acreage in the north.  It is uncertain if northern acres will get planted due to wet conditions

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a dry period develops for 5-7 consecutive days starting Fri.-Sat.  Scattered rain returns  Jan. 24-25, most likely producing 1.00”-2.00” in southern areas, but sparing wettest northern areas with lesser totals

·      Ethanol margins: $0.03 per gallon—up vs. $0.02 last week but well below $0.24 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 56.0 MMT.  Planting progress is at 96% with approx. 2% of remaining acreage in the north.  It is uncertain if northern acres will get planted due to wet conditions

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a dry period develops for 5-7 consecutive days starting Fri.-Sat.  Scattered rain returns  Jan. 24-25, most likely producing 1.00”-2.00” in southern areas, but sparing wettest northern areas with lesser totals

·      T-storm Weather: Drought is no longer a significant issue for winter wheat across the EU, Russia or Ukraine

·      Chicago March 2019 wheat futures on Tue. closed at $5.11; one year ago, Chi. March 2018 wheat settled at $4.16 ½

ENERGY

·      Lower: CLG19, -$0.19 @ $51.92; EBG, +$0.05 @ $60.70; EBG-QCLG, +$0.21; RBG, -.0033; NGG, -.016; HOG, +0.0001

·      EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.0 (-0.56); Gasoline, +2.3 (+6.0); Distillates, +0.9 (+3.2).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.009 mbpd (range: 0.999-1.022).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.493 mb (range 23.300-23.594)

·      Chicago ethanol was off $.0225 @ $1.2625; basis values were mostly firm: New York, +$.0125 @ $.1475; Gulf, unch @ $.1125; Dallas, +$.0175 @ $.0575; Tampa, +$.01 @ $.16; and LA, +$.0025 @ $.1925    

·      Ethanol RINs were rose: 2017’s, -.625 @ 11-11 ¾;  2018’s, +0.625 @ 15 -15 ¾; 2019’s, +0.3750 @ 18-18 ½                                 

​ ·      The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread reversed course, widening $.0584 to+$.1394/gal; trading $.1172 this morning

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &nb​sp;     

• Choice boxed beef values firmed 19-cents on Tuesday to $212.21, but are still $1.77 lower vs. a week ago
• Feb. live cattle futures on Tue. made a contract high of $127.10; highest price for nearby futures since Feb. 28, 2018

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.33 lower on Tue. at $68.54, but is still a penny higher vs. last week

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.44 on Tue. to $57.65.  February futures firmed $0.30, and are $4.50 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

              

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