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TRENDS Higher CH, Up 2, SH, Up 5, WH, Up 7

January 11, 2019 07:57 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—(5:40 am)—Higher: CH, +$.0225; SH, +$.0350; WH, +$.0525; KWH, +$.0475
  • MACRO:  CPA data out at 8:30 EST seems to be the key numbers the market will watch today.  Asia: Firmer--Nikkei, +0.97%; Shanghai, +0.74%; Hang Seng, +0.55%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.19%; FTSE, +0.16%; CAC, -0.23%.  WALL STREET: Futures are Lower: DOW, -19; S&P, -4.25; NAS, -15.50.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$0.33@ $52.92; Gold: +$5.00 @ $1,293; Mar $ Index, -.175 @ 94.945. Del’y: SBM, 167; SBO, 40; SB, 473
  • T-storm Weather: Stagnant upper-level high pressure near eastern Brazil causes similar weather to continue at any given location, most notably leaving central and northern areas of Brazil drier than normal with only isolated to widely-scattered thunderstorms, while numerous major rains recur in Argentina and far-southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul), and areas between receive some thunderstorms

·        CH, up $.0225 @ $3.7850; CK, up $.0275 @ $3.8725.  Lack of data, both USDA &  no China confirmation . . . funds sell 7 K             

  • SH, up $.0350 @ $9.1025; SK, up $.0350 @ $9.2375.  Funds: Sold 5K SB, 2.5 K SBM & 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.00, -2; LY: $1.03 
  • WH, up $.0525 @ $5.19; WK, up  $.05 @ $5.2475.  Thursday the funds sold 3 K                      

CORN/SORGHUM

· &nb​sp;      Consultant: Argentina corn prod. unch at 40.5 MMT; ~0.65 mln ha of corn is left to plant in far northern Argentina (~11% of total acreage).  If wet weather persists in northern areas, corn acreage may end up less than anticipated

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, waves of energy continually generate above-normal rain along the southern edge of upper-level high pressure.  Forecasted amounts: 4.00” to 8.00”+ north; 3.00” to 6.00”+ central; & 1.00” to 3.00” south

·        ATI Research: Brazil’s December corn exports were 158 mbu.  Sep-Dec corn shipments were off 182 mbu (25%) and likely accounts for about 60% of the 310 mbu increase in Sep-Dec U.S. corn exports

·        December 2019 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.99; one year ago, December 2018 corn futures settled at $3.82 ¾

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Consultant: Argentina soybean crop is unchanged at 56.0 MMT; ~0.9 mln ha of soybeans left to plant in far northern Argentina (~5% of total acreage).  If wet weather persists in northern areas, acreage may end up less than anticipated

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, waves of energy continually generate above-normal rain along the southern edge of upper-level high pressure.  Forecasted amounts: 4.00” to 8.00”+ north; 3.00” to 6.00”+ central; & 1.00” to 3.00” south

·        T-storm Weather: Snowfall of 1”-4” is forecast through Saturday across HRW wheat in the northern half of Kansas

·        To reach the annual USDA all wheat export forecast of 1.0 bbu, weekly shipments needs to avg. 25.0 through May 31  

ENERGY

·        Firm: CLG19, +$0.33 @ $52.92; EBG, +$0.25 @ $61.92; EBG-QCLG, +$0.08; RBG, +.0034; NGG, +.079HOG, +.0045

·        Chicago ethanol was $.00875 weaker at $1.25875; basis values were mostly weaker: New York, -$.00375 @ $.13125; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.11625; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.08625; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.19625; and LA, +$.03875 @ $.21125    

·        Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s, -.50 @ 10-12; 2018’s, +0.125 @ 14 ¼ -15; 2019’s, -0.1250 @ 17 -17 ¾                              

·        The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread widened further on Thursdy, $.0163 to +$.17070/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​;                        ​   

  • Choice boxed beef values firmed 12-cents on Thursday to $213.96, but are still down $2.53 compared to last week

·        Cash cattle trends were not established on Thursday.  Asking prices are $125 to $126 live and $200 dressed

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.30 on Thursday to $69.24, and is up 69-cents vs. a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.89 on Thu. to $55.99.  February futures firmed $0.30, & are $8.085 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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