HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0125; SH, +$.0050; WH, unch; KWH, $.0050. USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum concludes today
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What caught my eye: Trade will focus on Outlook Forum’s 19/20 commodity balance sheets—China optimism? And, 6 weeks worth of export sales data out this morning to see where China buying stands
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Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, -0.18%; Shanghai, +1.91%; Hang Seng, +0.65%. EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.58%; FTSE, +0.38%;CAC, +0.28%. WALL STREET: Futures, up: DOW, +113; S&P, +10.75; NAS, +35.50. EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.53 @ $57.49;Gold: -$2.30 @ $1,325; Mar $ Index, -0.003 @ 96.46. U.S./China trade discussions remain central as the March 2 deadline looms
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Weather: In Brazil, scattered thundershowers favor Mato Grosso and Goias today, with somewhat drier conditions on Sat. A few showers and thundershowers occur on Sunday and Monday. Further south, mainly dry conditions affect Parana and Rio Grande do Sul today and Saturday, before scattered showers develop on Sunday. In Argentina, scattered showers and thunderstorms favor central and east areas of the south Buenos Aires today, with only a few light showers on Sat. Temperatures turn cooler
· CH, up $.0125 @ $3.7675; CK, up $.0150 @ $3.8575. Heavy fund buying on China trade optimism, 20 K
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SH, up $.0050 @ $9.1150; SK, up $.0050 @ $9.2475. Funds: Bot 6 K SB, even SB, bot 5 K SBO. Board Crush: $.97, -1; LY, $1.50
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WH, unch @ $4.8650; WK, dn $.0025 @ $4.9075. The funds werebuyers in wheat as well, 4 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST to cover Jan. 10-Feb. 14 (6 weeks); trade expects 157-276 mbu for total corn sales
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Consultant: Corn planting in Argentina is now complete. The wide range of planting—mid-Sept to mid-Feb—implies uncertainty on crop size; e.g. early harvest is occurring but yields on very late planted corn are far from determined
· Weather: In Argentina, scattered showers and thunderstorms favor central and east corn areas of south Buenos Aires today. Temperatures also turn cooler. Mostly dry weather is forecast early next week but temps remain cool
· Ethanol grind: Total of 996,000 barrels/day for the week ending Feb. 15—dn 3.2% vs. prior week & dn 6.7% vs. 2018
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST covers Jan. 10-Feb. 14 (6 wks); trade expects 220-331 mbu for total soybean sales
· Consultant: In Brazil, the soybean harvest has slowed recently due to increased rainfall. However, the increased rainfall should benefit the later maturing soybeans
· Weather: In Brazil, scattered thundershowers in Mato Grosso today may slow the completion of soybean harvest
· Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST to cover Jan. 10-Feb. 14 (6 weeks); trade expects 73-110 mbu for total wheat sales
· Weather: Snow, ice & rain forecast Sat. for U.S. HRW wheat in Central & Southern Plains; 0.25”-0.75” rain, 3”-8” snow
ENERGY
· Higher: CLJ19, +$0.53 @ $57.49; EBJ, +$0.51 @ $67.58; EBJ-QCLJ, -$0.01;RBJ, +.0094; NGJ, -.005; HOJ, +0.0074
· Chicago ethanol gained $.01375 to $1.34375; basis values firmed: New York, +$.02125 @ $.0350; Gulf, +$.00125 @ $.08625; Dallas, +$.00125 @ $.07125; Tampa, +.01125 @ $.18125; LA, +$.00625 @ $.18625
· Ethanol RINs, firm: 2017’s, +0.25 @ 18- 19; 2018’s,+0.25 @ 19 ¼ -19 ½; 2019’s, +0.3750 @ 22- 22 ½  
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread was little change, losing $.0007 to +$.2704
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef firmed $1.58 on Thursday to $218.07, and is up $1.63 versus last week
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Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Jan. 1 on feed, 102.2%; Placed in Dec, 101.4%; Marketed in Dec, 99.7%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.60 on Thu. to $60.06, but is still down $1.42 versus a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.07 on Thu. to $54.06. April futures increased $2.975 & are now $1.89 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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