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TRENDS Higher CH, Unchanged, SH, Down 3, WH, Down 1

February 13, 2019 07:14 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—(5:30 am) Higher: CH, +$.0050; SH, +$.0025; WH, +$.0150; KWH, +$.01
  • MACRO: Trump “tempted” to push back March 1 deadline if U.S./China are close to making a trade deal. Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +1.34%; Shanghai, +1.84%; Hang Seng, +1.16%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.15%; FTSE, +0.47%; CAC, +0.22%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher:DOW, +43; S&P, +3.00; NAS, +21.20.  EXTERNALS: March crude: +$0.62@ $53.72; Gold:  +$0.30 @ $1,314; Mar $ Index, +0.107 @ 96.610.
  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall eases dryness over the next 10 to 14 days, generally slowing first-crop corn and soybean harvesting, while improving soil moisture for second-crop corn emergence and growth.  In Argentina, dry weather over the next 10 days increases the need for rain, and scattered thunderstorms remain probable to form along a cool front next Friday-Sunday (Feb. 22-24) when 0.50" to 1.50" is expected

·       CH, up $.0050 @ $3.7875; CK, up $.0075 @ $3.87.  China trade optimism led to the Funds buying 8 K on Tuesday   

  • SH, up $.0025 @ $9.1775; SK, dn $.0025 @ $9.3150.  Funds: bought 6 SB, 5 K SBM & even SBO.  Board Crush:, $.96,-2; LY, $1.39
  • WH, up $.0150 @ $5.2150; WK, up $.01 @ $5.2275.  Fund activity yesterday was estimated at 0                               

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production est. for 2018/19 is unch at 91.5 MMT.  The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics last Friday reported that 52% of safrinha (double crop) corn was planted vs. 27% for the 5-year average

  • T-storm Weather: Over the next 10-14 days, widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rain of 2.25”-4.50” develops across southern safriha(double crop) corn areas, while 3.50”-6.50” impacts central and north areas

·       Ethanol margins: $0.12 per gallon—up vs. $0.09 last week but well below $0.32 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 55.0 MMT.  Although soils have a good water holding capacity, if it stays dry for another week or two, moisture stresses will start to develop in southern soybean producing areas

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, mainly dry weather prevails across soybean producing areas over the next 10 days.  Scattered thunderstorms are then probable to form along a cool front Feb. 22-24 when 0.50"-1.50" of rain is expected

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., SRW wheat areas of Delta & SE Corn Belt see heavy rain (2.50”-5.00”) the next 2 weeks

·       KC HRW December 2019 wheat futures on Tue. posted a contract low of $5.29 ¼

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLH19, +$0.62 @ $53.72; EBJ, +$0.94 @ $63.36; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.31; RBH, +.0206; NGH, -.104HOH, +0.0271

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.1 (-1.0); Gasoline, +0.7 (+0.7); Distillates, -1.6 (-2.5).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.002 mbpd (range: 0.981-1.015).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.037 mb (range 23.947-24.107)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.02 higher @ $1.36125; basis values weaker: New York, -$.0075 @ $.06625; Gulf, -$.02 @ $.05625; Dallas, -$.02 @ $.03375; Tampa, -$.02 @ $.12375; LA, -$.02 @ $.12875   

·       Ethanol RINs, steady/firm: 2017’s, 0 @ 16 ½ -17; 2018’s,+0.25 @ 17 ½ -18 ½; 2019’s, +0.125 @ 20 ½ - 21 ¼                            ​         

·   &n​bsp;   The March RBOB/March ethanol spread narrowed in $.0030 to+$.0982/gal   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &nbs​p; 

  • Choice boxed beef firmed 28-cents on Tuesday to $217.16, and is up 14-cents versus last week
  • In cash cattle markets, a few token bids started to develop on Tuesday in Nebraska at $198 dressed

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 35-cents on Tuesday to $63.82, and is down $1.35 versus a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.23 on Tue. to $55.91.  February futures were unch, but are $0.735 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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