Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Firm: CZ, +$.02; SF, +$.0050; WZ, +$.0225; KWZ, +$.0150.
· What caught my eye: Brazil end-of-October soybean stocks are likely to be down some 5.6 MMT (23%), which should open the door for additional U.S. export business; more so if the China trade deal gets signed
· Stock futures are higher, following most overseas markets. ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.22%; Shanghai, -0.43%; Hang Seng, +0.02%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.20%; FTSE, +0.07%; CAC, +0.33%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher-- DOW, +29; S&P, +3.00; NAS, +8.50. EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.27 @ $56.96; Gold: +$1.40 @ $1,485; $ Index: -.125 @ 97.858
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T-storm Weather®: Scattered thunder-storms will be common for much of Brazil through the early part of next week and these will continue on for the Central areas. Rainfall amounts will be significant at between 2-4” which is normal for the this time of year. However, a surface-level high pressure system residing offshort in Argentina is likely to limit amounts and coverage for that corn and soybean growing areas, continuing the drought-like conditions
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CZ, up $.0175 @ $3.8350; CH, up $.01 @ $3.9275. Fund selling on Tuesday was estimated at 2 K as news was scarce
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SF, up $.0025 @ $9.3450; SH, up $.0025 @ $9.4750. Funds: Sold 3 K SB; 3 K SBO & even SBM. Board Crush: $0.87, +2; LY, $1.14
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WZ, up $.0225 @ $5.1750; WH, up $.02 @ $5.2225. The funds bought 4 K in yesterday’s trading session
CORN/SORGHUM</strong>
· CZ2019’s $3.8175 close yesterday was the lowest close since the pre-stocks report price of $3.7150 and $.0750 above the year-ago price of $3.74
· Monday’s crop progress report indicated 6.6 bbu of corn was still in the field; at last year’s 74% pace (75% average), only 3.6 billion would have remained
· Unshipped corn sales of 306 mbu are at a 7-year low. Considering Far and Mid-East destinations accounted for nearly 40% of LY’s 2.075 bbu export total, the outlook is bit more bleak, unshipped at just 41 mbu—a 31 year low
· But, there may be hope as Brazil FOB values have gone from a $2.75/MT discount to the Gulf to $1.25 premium TW
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· SH2010’s Tuesday closing price of $9.4725 was $.49 per bushel above the year-ago level of $8.9825
· As of Sunday, producers still had nearly 900 million bushels of soybeans to harvest, nearly double the average amount for this time of year of 460 million
· FWIW, U.S. SBM export demand has actually been fairly robust lately with weekly shipments leaving the U.S. at the rate of 218 K MT, a new high for the month of October, 15% above LY’s drought affected Argentine program
ENERGY
· Lower: CLZ19, -$0.27 @ $56.96; EBF, -$0.33 @ $62.63; EBF-QCLF, -.06; RBZ, -.0115; NGZ, +.003; HOZ, -.0088216
· EIA estimates (API): crude, +1.5 (+4.3); Gasoline, 01.8 (-4.2); Distillates, -0.9 (-1.6). Ethanol: production, 1.014 mbpd (1.01-1.02); stocks: 21.27 (21.03-21.90)
· Chicago ethanol was $.0195 weaker yesterday at $1.5005/gal; basis values were mostly firmer: NYC, +$.0045 @ +$.1245; Gulf, +$.0045 @ +$.0945; Dallas, +$.0045 @ +.0895; Tampa, +$.01950 @ +$.2145; LA, -$.0155 @ +$.1745
· Ethanol RINs were lower: 2018’s, -.25 @ 4 -4 ½; 2019’s, -.75 @ 12 -12 ¾; 2020’s, -.7750 @ 22 -23      
· The December RBOB/December ethanol spread jumped out $.0679 to $.2806/gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY <wbr>  
·  Choice boxed beef firmed $1.24 yesterday to $236.05 and was up $5.50 versus a week earlier
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Limited interest in cash cattle trade has been seen so far this week. Today’s slaughter numbers are expected around the 118 K level
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was off 43-cents Tue. to $77.86 but is up $2.14 versus the prior week
· CME Lean Hog Index slipped $.52 cents to $60.36
· Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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