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TRENDS Firm CZ, Unchanged, SX, Up 1, WZ, Up 3

October 10, 2019 07:01 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • USDA Supply/Demand (WASDE) report at 11:00 am CDT
  • TRENDS—Firm:  CZ, +$.0025; SX, +$.0250; WZ, +$.0275; KWZ, +$.0325 

·       What caught my eye:  Let’s see what this morning’s WASDE and Crop Production reports bring—harvested acreage, yield, feed/residual and exports are all worth monitoring

·       Trade issues remain, global equities “wobble”.  ASIA: Firm--Nikkei, +0.45%; Shanghai, +0.78%; Hang Seng, +0.10%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher —DAX, +0.21%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, +0.43%.  WALL STREET—Futures are modestly  firm-- DOW, +5; S&P, +2; NAS, +8.25.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.12 $52.46; Gold: -$1.50 $1,511; $ Index:-.430 @ 98.688

  • Weather: Scattered showers & thunderstorms are forecast today for the western U.S. Corn Belt.  Some moderate to heavy totals are expected.  Some light mixed precip could be seen Fri.-Sat.  Dry conditions or just a few light showers are projected for the eastern Corn Belt today.  Scattered showers & thunderstorms are forecast for Fri.; some moderate to heavy totals are possible 
  • CZ, up $.0025 @ $3.9450; CH, up $.0025 @ $4.0575.  Fund selling at mid-week, 2 K            
  • SX, up $.0250 @ $9.2625; SF, up $.02 @ $9.40.  Funds: Bot 3 SB, 5 SBM, & sold 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.84, +1; LY, $1.60
  • WZ, up $.0275 @ $5.03; WH, up $.0275 @ $5.0975.  The funds were even in Wednesday’s trading          

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. corn crop: 13.588 bbu (range 12.736-13.833) & 13.799 in Sep.

  • USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--19/20, 1.682 bbu (range 1.257-1.993) & 2.190 in Sep

·       Weather: western U.S. Corn Belt temps are forecast to be below to much below normal Fri.-Tue.; chance of a growing season ending freeze in some areas Sat.-Tue.  Eastern Corn Belt temps will be below normal, but a freeze is not likely

·       Consultant: The 2019/20 Argentina corn production estimate was left unchanged this week at 50.0 MMT with a neutral bias.  Farmers had planted 20.6% of their intended corn acres as of late last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. soybean crop: 3.563 bbu (range 3.452-3.658) & 3.633 in Sep

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--19/20, 0.496 bbu (range 0.342-0.584) & 0.640 in Sep

·       Weather: western U.S. Corn Belt temps are forecast to be below to much below normal Fri.-Tue.; chance of a growing season ending freeze in some areas Sat.-Tue.  Eastern Corn Belt temps will be below normal, but a freeze is not likely

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess U.S. all wheat carryout--19/20, 1.011 bbu (range 0.939-1.054) & 1.014 in Sep

·       Weather: Mostly dry conditions are forecast over the next week for all primary wheat growing areas of Australia

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLX19, -$0.12 @ $52.46; EBZ, -$0.15 @ $58.17; EBZ-QCLZ, -.02; RBX, -.0052; NGX, +.005HOX, -.0096

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0175; basis values were higher:  NYC, +$.13 @ +$.2550; Gulf, $.0725 @ +$.0975; Dallas, +$.0375 @ +$.0425; Tampa, +$.0025 @ +$.1475; LA, +$.0225 @ $.1950

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker with 2018’s,-0.75 @ 8-10; 2019’s, -1.1250 @ 17 ½ -19 ¾                                ​;                         ​;                        ​                

·​;       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread gave up $.0478 as it narrowed to $.0911/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &nbs​p;     

·   ​;    Choice boxed beef was $1.00 higher on Wednesday at $214.60 and is up $1.63 versus last week

  • December live cattle futures on Wednesday traded $112.200—the highest price for the contract since Aug. 9

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.92 lower on Wed. at $75.60 but is still up $2.19 versus a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.53 on Wed. at $60.12.  October futures firmed $1.100 and are $2.68 above the index                             

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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