HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Firm:  CZ, +$.02; SF, +$.0325; WZ, +$.0275; KWZ, unch.  Del’y:  RR, 10; SB, 0

·       What caught my eye:  Seems that with the very slow start to the 19/20 U.S. corn export program, there is a good likelihood the USDA will cut its forecast by 25-50 mbu tomorrow. Or, at least history suggests than

·       So much for yesterday’s trade deal negativity. Optimism today!  ASIA: Firmer--Nikkei, +0.11%; Shanghai, unch; Hang Seng, +0.57%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.72%; FTSE, +0.16%; CAC, +0.18%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher (much?)-- DOW, +147; S&P, +13.00; NAS, +42.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: +$0.72 @ $57.07; Gold: -$8.90 @ $1,484; $ Index: -.085 @ 97.867

• T-storm Weather®: Scattered thunder-storms will be common for much of Brazil through the early part of next week and these will continue on for the Central areas.  Rainfall amounts will be significant at between 2-4” which is normal for the this time of year. However, a surface-level high pressure system residing offshort in Argentina is likely to limit amounts and coverage for that corn and soybean growing areas, continuing the drought-like conditions
• CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.7950; CH, up $.01 @ $3.8875.  More fund selling, 5 K as trade agreement meeting gets kicked down the road                   
• SF, up $.0325 @ $9.3075; SH, up $.03 @ $9.4375.  Funds: Sold 6 K SB; 5 K SBMO & buy 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.87, +2; LY, $1.14
• WZ, up $.0275 @ $5.1950; WH, up $.0250 @ $5.24.  The funds bought 1 K yesterday                 

CORN/​SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 12-26 mbu for 19/20 corn (33.0 needed)

·       The ethanol industry ground an estimated 105 mbu of corn and milo in the latest week, 6 million fewer than a year ago.  YTD combined grind is running 46 million behind last year; USDA forecast is for an 18 mbu annual increase

·       December corn closed at $3.78 ¾ yesterday. Just 6 ½ cents above LY’s CZ2018 close.  Nov 2018 stx/use forecast was 11.5%; currently the USDA is at 13.8%

·       Corn sales to Mexico are down 14% year to year (38 mbu)--Brazil; actually not as much as some expected

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 22-44 mbu for 19/20 soybeans (24.2 needed); 150-300 KMT for 19/20 soymeal (177.6 needed); and 5-25 KMT for 19/20 soyoil (11.4 needed)

·       SF20 closed at $9.2750, just 3 ½ cents below the year close for SF2019.  Yet, stocks are considerably tighter at 11.4% for the October forecast versus November 2018’s 23.2% USDA estimate

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 13-22 mbu for 19/20 all wheat (13.4 needed)

·       Since the 1^st of October, Chinese soybean oil futures have surged nearly 10%/3 ¾ cents to $.41+/lb—Palm Oil supply worries and possibly reduced SB crush in China as meal demand eases

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLZ19, +$0.72 @ $57.07; EBF, +$0.81 @ $62.55; EBF-QCLF, +.08; RBZ, +.0144; NGZ, -.036<​/strong>; HOZ, +.0129

·       Ethanol production, 1.014 mbpd, up 10 K from LW (trade: 1.014); stocks: 21.87 mb, +775 K (trade: 21.27)

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.02925 at $1.4713/gal; basis values were mostly firmer:  NYC, +$.03175 @ +$.15625; Gulf, -$.00075 @ +$.09375; Dallas, +$.00675 @ +.09625; Tampa, +$.00925 @ +$.22375; LA, +$.01925 @ +$.19375

·        Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2018’s, +.625 @ 4 ½ -5 ½; 2019’s, unch @ 12 ¼ -12 ½; 2020’s, -.1250 @ 22 -22 ¾                         &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;    

·       The December RBOB/December ethanol spread narrowed $.0274 on Wednesday to $.2532/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &n​bsp;                 

·       Choice boxed beef firmed $1.09 yesterday to $237.14 and was up $7.09 versus a week earlier     

• Reports that China has signed a $100 million deal with European pork producers was not well received by the market but they do need pork products

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value rose $2.21 Wed to $80.07 and is up $2.21 versus the prior week

·       CME Lean Hog Index was off $.20 cents to $60.16 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®