HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Firm: CU, +$.02; SQ, +$.0025; WU, +$.03; KWU, +$.0125
• What caught my eye: Market (corn) somewhat higher on weather outlook.  Let’s see what this afternoon’s crop ratings reveal about the condition of the crop
• China’s Q2 growth slows to weakest pace in 27 years—trade war toll. Asia: Up--Nikkei, +0.20%; Shanghai, +0.40%; Hang Seng, +0.29%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +06%; FTSE, -0.04%; CAC, -0.25%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firm: DOW, +47; S&P, +5.50; NAS, +10.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.23 @ $60.44; Gold:  +$5.10 @ $1,417; $ Index: -.055 @ 96.755

·       T-storm ® Weather: Widespread heat affects the central U.S. (highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s, or +5°F to +10°F from normal) until a cool front passes at some point within July 22-24 and several days of seasonable temperatures begin.  Near- or above-normal rainfall is likely for ~45% and ~55% of U.S. corn and soybeans over the next 10-14 days (wettest in MN, ND, SD, Delta), while the rest likely stay drier than normal (driest in an arc from/near KS into IA & northwest IL)

• CU, up $.02 @ $4.5625; CZ, up $.0275 @ $4.62.  Hot, dry weather pattern encourages fund buying, 15 K on Friday
• SQ, up $.0025 @ $9.1350; SU, up $.0050 @ $9.1950.  Funds: Bot 8 K SB, 2 K SBM, 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.92, -6; LY, $2.06
• WU, up $.03 @ $5.26; WZ, up $.03 @ $5.38.  The funds bot 4 K to close out the week

CORN/SORGHUM

• Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent at 57-58% v. 57% last week & 72% last year

·       T-storm ® Weather: The remnant circulation of Hurricane Barry produces 2.00”-4.00” of rain in Delta today, & then diminishes as it moves across SE third of Corn Belt into Tue. & produces 0.50”-1.50” in IN, OH, & SE third to half of IL

• ATI Research: Sluggish development of 2019 U.S. corn crop is illustrated in silking.  The 5-year average for U.S. corn silking increases approx. 20% from July 7-14 to 42%; however, corn silking for 2019 as of July 8 was only at 8%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 53.5 mbu needed; 27.7 last week.  Milo—2.2 needed; 2.8 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Consultant: Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent at 53-54% v. 53% last week & 69% last year
• ATI Research: Sluggish development of 2019 U.S. soybean crop is illustrated in blooming.  The 5-year average for U.S. soybeans blooming rises ~17% from July 7-14 to 49%; however, blooming for 2019 as of July 7 was only at 10%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 38.6 mbu needed; 27.8 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.2 mbu needed; 22.4 last week

·       T-storm ® Weather: In Australia, some showers over the next 7-10 days impact southern wheat areas; otherwise dry

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLQ19, +$0.24 @ $60.44; EBU, +$0.38 @ $67.10; EBU-QCLQ, +.14;RBQ, -.0209; NGQ, -.032; HOQ, -.0011

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0475 higher Friday at $1.5725; basis values were mostly lower: NYC, +$.0175 @ $.1175; Gulf, -$.0025 @ $.10250; Dallas, -$.0025 @ $.0875; Tampa, -$.0050 @ $.1950; LA, -$.03750 @ $.1875  

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer:  2018’s,+.8750 @ 17 -18 ½; 2019’s, +.8750 @ 21 - 22                                               &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;        

·       The August RBOB/August ethanol spread tightened further on Friday, as it narrowed $.0575 to $.3830 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     ​                  ​

• Choice boxed beef declined 97-cents on Friday to $212.80 and is $4.87 lower versus last week
• Increased cash cattle trading on Friday took place $2 higher than the previous last week; most dressed sales hit $182

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 26-cents on Friday to $70.57 and is #1.25 lower vs. a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.08 on Friday to $70.73.  July futures fell $0.550 but are still $0.32 above the index                         ​   

Sou​rces: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather