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TRENDS Firm CN, Up 2, SN, Up 6, WN, Up 1

May 26, 2020 07:06 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm:  CN, +.0150; SN, +$.0625; WN, +$.0025; KWN, +$.0025

·       What caught my eye: China is on a terror importing soybeans . . . Oil World expects record amounts in May, June and July, raising its forecast for the year to 94.4 million MMT (USDA: 92.0)

·       Equity futures soar—U.S open for business; potential coronavirus vaccine .  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +2.55%; Shanghai, +1.01%; Hang Seng, +1.88%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.43%; FTSE, +1.17%; CAC, +1.16%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher--DOW, +501; S&P, +56; NAS, +175.   EXTERNALS: July crude, +$0.74 @ $33.99Gold: -$13 $1,723; Sep $ Index, -0.640 @ 99.240

·       T-storm Weather®: scattered rains affect much of the central U.S. over the next few days as two upper-level systems wobble, after which a strong cool front sweeps all energy away Thu.-Fri. and marks the start of at least five to seven days of dry weather. After mixed temperatures over the next few days and then several days of coolness, a very warm to hot period starts Sun.-Mon. and continues for at least five to ten days.  Some thunderstorms accompany warmth in 10 to 14 days (June 4-7)

  • CN, up $.0150 @ $3.1950; CU, up $.0125 @ $3.24.  The funds were said to be even in Friday’s trade               
  • SN, up $.0625 @ $8.3950; SQ, up $.06 @ $8.4250.  Funds: even SB; bot 2 SBM, sold 5 SBO.  Board crush: $0.85 (N/N), +3; LY, $1.27
  • WN, up $.0025 @ $5.09; WU, dn $.0075 @ $5.12.  Active fund selling on Friday, estimated at 8 K   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 90% compared to 80% last week, 55% last year & the 5-year avg. of 82%

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., scattered rain steadily progresses eastward the next few days before ending Thu.-Fri.; 1.00”-2.00” falls in much of central/southern Plains (except west), while 0.75”-1.50” most common in Corn Belt, Delta

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 49.5 mbu needed; 45.3 last week.  Milo—5.6 needed; 9.0 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: dry and unseasonably cool weather dominate second-crop corn in Brazil until around next Monday (June 1) when a new cool front triggers thunderstorms and produces 1.00” to 2.00” on southern corn

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 68% compared to v. 53% last week, 26% last year & the 5-year avg. of 55%

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., scattered rain steadily progresses eastward the next few days before ending Thu.-Fri.; 1.00”-2.00” falls in much of central/southern Plains (except west), while 0.75”-1.50” most common in Corn Belt, Delta

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 26.5 mbu needed; 12.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: seasonable to cool & rainy weather forecast near-term for wheat in eastern EU, Russia & Ukraine

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs wheat plating progress in Argentina at 5%, which is two points ahead of last year

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLN20, +$0.74 @ $33.99EBN, +$0.58 $36.11EBN-QCLN, -$0.17; RBM, +.0235; NGM, -.003; HOM, +.0326

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0275 on Friday to 1.1625/gallon; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, +$.0025 @ +$.0575; Gulf, -$.0175 @ $.0725; Dallas, -$.0325 @ +$.1025; Tampa, -$.0325 @ +$.1925; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.1875

·       Ethanol RINs values, firm: 2018’s, +.25 @ 25 ¼ -27 ¾; 2019’s, +$0.50 @ 36 ½ -37; 2020’s: +0.75 @ 39 ½ -40                                   &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                           

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse edged out $.0041 to $.0668/gallon Friday, premium ethanol. -$.0463 this am     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   ​;                    

  • Choice boxed beef declined $5.07 on Friday to $396.74, and is $37.58 lower compared  to the previous week
  • Cattle on Feed: May 1 on feed, 94.9% (95.0% avg est); April placed, 77.7% (77.1%); April Market, 75.7% (74.7%)
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $1.18 on Fri. to $95.76, and is down $13.92 versus last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.15 on Fri. to $63.45.  June futures declined $0.575 and are $4.675 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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