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TRENDS Firm CK, Up 1, SK, Up 1, WK, Up 2

April 12, 2019 07:27 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Firm: CK, +$.0050; SK, +$.0125; WK, +$.0250; KWK, +$.02 
  • What caught my eye: Huge sale of pork announced to China yesterday of nearly 78,000 MT, or about 3 times the “normal” level of seasonal sales.  Some think should China continue to buy, this will stimulate Mexican interest—more demand
  • Earnings season begins today with JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo out ahead of opening.  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +0.73%; Shanghai, -1.34%; Hang Seng, +0.24%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.53%; FTSE, +0.44%; CAC, +0.32%WALL STREET—Futures are UP!--DOW, +163; S&P, +12.75; NAS, +31.75. EXTERNALS: June crude: +$.86 @ $64.53; Gold:  +$4.10 @ $1,297; $ Index, NA
  • T-storm Weather: The blizzard continues in some fashion over the next 12 hours in SD, WI & eastern ND as the intense cyclone slowly exits.  A strong system produces widespread rain (mixed with snow) across the southern Plains & southeast half of the Corn Belt Sat.-Sun., while producing heavy rain & thunderstorms in the Delta; dry elsewhere.  A strong system also affects a wide swath of central U.S. April 17-19, producing 0.75”-1.50” across Corn Belt & Delta, & generalized totals of 0.25”-0.75” in the Plains
  • CK, up $.0050 @ $3.6050; CN, up $.00025 @ $3.69.  Funds sold 2 K on Thursday—export demand worries 
  • SK, up $.0125 @ $8.9650; SN, up $.0125 @ $9.10.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 3 SBM & 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.99, -1; LY, $1.31
  • WK, up $.0250 @ $4.63; WN, up $.02 @ $4.6750.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday                

CORN/SORGHUM

&middo​t;       ATI Research: U.S. old-crop corn export sales of 21.6 mbu for week end April 4 were up 2% from last week but down 18% versus the 4-week average.  Unshipped export sales of 501 mbu are down 42% vs. last year and a seven-year low

  • T-storm Weather: Moderate to strong systems move through the central U.S. every 3-5 days over the next two weeks, producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal precip with highest totals in the Corn Belt and Delta
  • Consultant: Corn production in Brazil could rise if rain for safrinha (double crop) areas persists & there is no early frost

·       USDA Feed Outlook report: 18/19 Grain consuming animal units est. 100.6 mil, unch v. March but above 99.2 in 17/18

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • ATI Research: Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of April 4: 478 mbu—a record for this time of year
  • T-storm Weather: Moderate to strong systems move through the central U.S. every 3-5 days over the next two weeks, producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal precip with highest totals in the Corn Belt and Delta

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production est. is 55.0 MMT with a range of 53.0-57.0, output last year was 37.8 MMT

·       ATI Research: Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of April 4: 213 mbu—up 56% vs. 136 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: A total of 62% of U.S. HRW wheat was drier than normal over the last two weeks

ENERGY

·       Higher:  CLM19+$.86 @ $64.53; EBM, +0.73 @ $71.50; EBM-QCLM, -.14;RBM, +.0068; NGM, +.009HOM, +.0164

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.00625 yesterday to $1.32125; basis, mixed: New York, +$.00375 @ $.15375; Gulf, -$.00125 @ $.10375; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.10375; Tampa, +$.01 @ $.21375; LA, -$.00125 @ $.38375   

·       Ethanol RIN were firmer:  2018’s, +0.75 @ 8 ½ -15; 2019’s, +1.3750 @ 15 ½ -19 ½                                       &nb​sp;              

·    &​nbsp;  The May RBOB/May ethanol spread lost $.0483 on Thursday to+$.6939/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​;                      

  • Choice boxed beef eased 22-cents on Thursday to $228.83, but is still $2.09 higher compared to a week ago
  • Dressed steer weight for week end March 30: 865 lbs, down a pound v. last week, 869 for 4-week avg. & 872 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.30 on Thursday to $83.34, & is $2.04 higher versus last week

  • CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.07 on Thu. at $79.36.  April futures firmed $0.325 but are still $0.135 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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