HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—(5:30 am) Firm: CH, +$.015; SH, +$.0175; WH, +$.0250; KWH, +$.0125.  USDA reports to be released at 11:00 am CST
• MACRO: Global economic slowdown appears to be spreading to more countries.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -2.01%; Shanghai, Closed; Hang Seng, -0.16%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.06%; FTSE, +0.10%; CAC, +0.28%. WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -78; S&P, -9.25; NAS, -33.75. EXTERNALS: March crude: -$0.22 @ $52.42; Gold:  +$0.70 @ $1,315;Mar $ Index, +0.066 @ 96.355 
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms continue in central & northern areas through Sun., but coverage & amounts have not been high & similar coverage continues.  Better-organized rains follow in central & northern areas in 7 to 10 days with the end result being near-normal totals across a wide area over the next two weeks.  In Argentina, some thunderstorms dot southern areas through today, but most occur within Sat.-Mon. producing 0.50"-1.50" south & 1.00"-2.00" central & north

·       CH, up $.0150 @ $3.78; CK, up $.0150 @ $3.8575.  The funds were heavy sellers, 10 K on lack of U.S./PRC trade progress 

• SH, up $.0175 @ $9.15; SK, up $.0175 @ $9.29.  Funds: Sold 5 SB, 4 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board Crush:, $.98,0; LY, $1.18
• WH, up $.0225 @ $5.1550; WK, up $.0250 @ $5.1950.  The funds sold 8 K ahead of today’s reports               

              CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.092 bbu (range: 11.940-12.400)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 18/19 carryout is 1.708 bbu (range: 1.621-1.787)

• USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. corn crop is 14.532 bbu (range: 14.343-14.760)
• Consultant: In Mato Grosso, Brazil, the early safrinha (double crop) corn planting continues at a record fast pace of 30% (vs. avg. of 15%) , which is good for corn if there is normal rainfall in the second half of the summer rainy season

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, soil moisture improves over the next 2 weeks for safrinha (double crop) corn development

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 3.743 bbu (range: 3.414-3.872)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 18/19 carryout: 0.926 bbu (range: 0.800-1.015)

·       USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 4.569 bbu (range: 4.490-4.620)

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, increased rain for central & northern areas the next 2 weeks likely slows soybean harvest

• USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report: Avg. trade guess all winter: 32.1 mil; HRW, 22.6; SRW, 6.0; and White, 3.5

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. wheat 18/19 carryout: 0.989 bbu (range: 0.950-1.028)

• USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. all wheat stocks is 1.957 bbu (range: 1.846-2.003)

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH19, -$0.22 @ $52.42; EBJ, +$0.20 @ $61.83; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.43;RBH, -.0021; NGH, +.016; HOH, +0.0042

·       Chicago ethanol declined $.0150 to $1.2875; basis values were mostly firm: New York, -$.0075 @ $.10; Gulf, unch @ $.10250; Dallas, +$.0150 @ $.0925; Tampa, +$.0250 @ $.1925; and LA, +$.0250 @ $.1925    

·       Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +1.00 @ 17-17 ¾; 2018’s, +1.00 @ 17 3/8 -18 ¾; 2019’s, +0.75 @ 21- 21 ¾                          &​nbsp;         

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread narrowed $.0193 on Thursday to+$.1328/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &nbs​p;             

• Choice boxed beef eased 86-cents on Thursday to $216.71, but is still $1.32 higher compared to a week ago
• Dressed steer weight for week end Dec. 29: 896 lbs, up 5 lbs v. last week, 894.5 for the 4-week avg. and 902 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 37-cents on Thu. to $64.06, & is $2.35 lower versus last week

• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.27 lower on Thu. at $56.89.  February futures fell $0.65, and are $1.615 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—(5:30 am) Firm: CH, +$.015; SH, +$.0175; WH, +$.0250; KWH, +$.0125.  USDA reports to be released at 11:00 am CST
• MACRO: Global economic slowdown appears to be spreading to more countries.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -2.01%; Shanghai, Closed; Hang Seng, -0.16%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.06%; FTSE, +0.10%; CAC, +0.28%. WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -78; S&P, -9.25; NAS, -33.75. EXTERNALS: March crude: -$0.22 @ $52.42; Gold:  +$0.70 @ $1,315;Mar $ Index, +0.066 @ 96.355 
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms continue in central & northern areas through Sun., but coverage & amounts have not been high & similar coverage continues.  Better-organized rains follow in central & northern areas in 7 to 10 days with the end result being near-normal totals across a wide area over the next two weeks.  In Argentina, some thunderstorms dot southern areas through today, but most occur within Sat.-Mon. producing 0.50"-1.50" south & 1.00"-2.00" central & north

·       CH, up $.0150 @ $3.78; CK, up $.0150 @ $3.8575.  The funds were heavy sellers, 10 K on lack of U.S./PRC trade progress 

• SH, up $.0175 @ $9.15; SK, up $.0175 @ $9.29.  Funds: Sold 5 SB, 4 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board Crush:, $.98,0; LY, $1.18
• WH, up $.0225 @ $5.1550; WK, up $.0250 @ $5.1950.  The funds sold 8 K ahead of today’s reports               

              CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.092 bbu (range: 11.940-12.400)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 18/19 carryout is 1.708 bbu (range: 1.621-1.787)

• USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. corn crop is 14.532 bbu (range: 14.343-14.760)
• Consultant: In Mato Grosso, Brazil, the early safrinha (double crop) corn planting continues at a record fast pace of 30% (vs. avg. of 15%) , which is good for corn if there is normal rainfall in the second half of the summer rainy season

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, soil moisture improves over the next 2 weeks for safrinha (double crop) corn development

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 3.743 bbu (range: 3.414-3.872)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 18/19 carryout: 0.926 bbu (range: 0.800-1.015)

·       USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 4.569 bbu (range: 4.490-4.620)

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, increased rain for central & northern areas the next 2 weeks likely slows soybean harvest

• USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report: Avg. trade guess all winter: 32.1 mil; HRW, 22.6; SRW, 6.0; and White, 3.5

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. wheat 18/19 carryout: 0.989 bbu (range: 0.950-1.028)

• USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. all wheat stocks is 1.957 bbu (range: 1.846-2.003)

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH19, -$0.22 @ $52.42; EBJ, +$0.20 @ $61.83; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.43;RBH, -.0021; NGH, +.016; HOH, +0.0042

·       Chicago ethanol declined $.0150 to $1.2875; basis values were mostly firm: New York, -$.0075 @ $.10; Gulf, unch @ $.10250; Dallas, +$.0150 @ $.0925; Tampa, +$.0250 @ $.1925; and LA, +$.0250 @ $.1925    

·       Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +1.00 @ 17-17 ¾; 2018’s, +1.00 @ 17 3/8 -18 ¾; 2019’s, +0.75 @ 21- 21 ¾                                    

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread narrowed $.0193 on Thursday to+$.1328/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                       ​

• Choice boxed beef eased 86-cents on Thursday to $216.71, but is still $1.32 higher compared to a week ago
• Dressed steer weight for week end Dec. 29: 896 lbs, up 5 lbs v. last week, 894.5 for the 4-week avg. and 902 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 37-cents on Thu. to $64.06, & is $2.35 lower versus last week

• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.27 lower on Thu. at $56.89.  February futures fell $0.65, and are $1.615 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather