HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Down: CK, unch; SK, -1; WK, -2 3/4; KWH,-3. Dely: SBM-388; SBO-88; C-1667; ETOH-72; HRW-4; SB-537; SRW-267
• What caught my eye:  Persistent cold weather likely to result in some shift in producer planting decisions, less corn in particualry the south and north, more beans 
• Asia: Mostly lower-Nikkei, -0.60%; Shanghai, +1.57%; Hang Seng, +0.26%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.14%; FTSE, +0.11%; CAC, -0.12%.  WALL STREET: Futures are weaker: DOW, -37; S&P, -3.50; NAS,-4.00.  EXTERNALS: April crude: -$0.46 @ $56.10; Gold:  +$1.80 @ $1,287; Mar $ Index, +0.040 @ 96.835.  Markets in search of “clarity” regarding trade agreement/timing
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms occur over the next 14 days in varying areas at varying times, ultimately producing widespread coverage of near- & above-normal rain of 2.00”-4.00”.  Temps will vary, but average near-normal in second-crop corn areas.  In Argentina, a system passes Thu.-Fri. & triggers another round of heavy thunderstorms across a wide area, producing another 1.25”-2.50” of rain to further erode dryness & improve soil moisture in all late-corn & soybean areas

·       CK, unch @ $3.7525; CN, down $.0025 @ $3.8425.  Fund buying was estimated at 7 K on Tuesday          

• SK, dn $.01 @ $9.1275; SN, dn $.01 @ $9.2675.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 1 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.98, 0; LY, $1.36
• WK, down $.0275 @ $4.60; WN, down $.0250 @ $4.6550.  The funds bought 5 K yesterday    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       March 8 USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 18/19 carryout is 1.751 bbu v. 1.735 in February

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. for 2018/19 is increased 1.0 MMT to 92.5 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias

• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, dryness much less a concern than earlier forsafrinha (double crop) corn; only 25% & 37% was drier than normal over 14- & 30-day periods ending March 3.  Soil moisture to be adequate through mid-month

·       Ethanol margins: $0.18 per gallon—up vs. $0.11 last week but well below $0.32 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       March 8 USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 18/19 carryout is 0.904 bbu vs. 0.910 in Feb.

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. lowered 1.0 MMT to 54.0 MMT with a neutral to perhaps slightly lower bias

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, another 1.25”-2.50” of rain affects soybeans through Fri., followed by ideal coolness
• March 8 USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. wheat 18/19 carryout is 1.019 bbu vs. 1.010 in Feb.
• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., most SRW wheat stays wet the next 10 days as numerous rains/snows affect wide area

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLJ19, -$0.46 @ $56.10; EBK, -$0.14 @ $65.72; EBK-QCLK, +$0.29; RBJ, +.0014; NGJ, +.005; HOJ, -0.0035

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +1.2 (+7.3); Gasoline, -2.1 (-0.4); Distillates, -1.4 (-3.1).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.022 mbpd (range: 1.010-1.031).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.842 mb (range 23.691-24.009)

·       Chicago ethanol was unchanged at $1.33625; basis, mostly weaker: New York, -$.0025 @ $.11625; Gulf, -$.00125 @ $.0975; Dallas, +$.01 @ $.11375; Tampa, -.0050 @ $.22375; LA, -$.02 @ $.20375   

·       Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +0.125 @ 17 ¾ -19; 2018’s,+0.125 @ 18 3/4-20; 2019’s, +0.375 @ 21 ¼ – 22 ¼                                     &nb​sp;      

·       The April RBOB/March ethanol spread gained $.0096  to +$.4174/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​;               

<​li> Choice boxed beef was 49-cents higher on Tuesday at $224.04, and is up $4.37 versus last week
• Estimates for March 8 USDA Cattle on Feed: Feb. 1 on feed, 100.2%; Placed in Jan, 92.6%; Marketed in Jan, 102.3%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 17-cents on Tue. to $61.16, but is still $1.71 higher vs. a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.01 on Tue. to $51.94.  April futures firmed $0.575 and are $5.96 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 

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