HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Down: CK, -¼; SK, -2½; WK, -2¼; KWH,-1/2. Dely: SBM, 395; SBO, 376; RR, 3; C, 1397; HRW, 74; O,2 SB, 580; SRW, 495
• What caught my eye:  If trade talk is correct regarding eventual PRC O/C buying . . . 735 mbu of SB and 200 million corn are hefty numbers with 26 weeks left in the marketing year.  And, will require some rapid logistical turn-around
• Asia: Mixed-Nikkei, -0.44%; Shanghai, +0.88%; Hang Seng, +0.01%. EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.11%; FTSE, +0.30%; CAC, -0.16%. WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +31; S&P, +3.25; NAS, +8.50. EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.02 @ $56.61; Gold:  -$1.80 @ $1,286;Mar $ Index, +0.060 @ 96.670.  Markets in a holding pattern, awaiting trade agreement
• Weather: In Brazil, dry conditions or just a few light showers occur today-Wed. in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.  Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Thu.-Sun.  Temps average above normal Mon.-Thu., variable Fri., near to below normal Sat.-Sun.  In Argentina, dryness occurs today across Cordoba, Santa Fe and North Buenos Aires, followed by episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Wed.-Fri.; moderate to heavy totals expected.  Variable temps are forecast this week

·      CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.7450; CN, up $.0025 @ $3.8350.  The funds opened the week buying 30 K          

• SK, dn $.0225 @ $9.1375; SN, dn $.0250 @ $9.2750.  Funds: Bot 4 SB, 5 SBM, sold 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $.98, +1; LY, $1.42
• WK, down $.02250 @ $4.5325; WN, down $.0175 @ $4.5925.  The funds were even in Monday’s trading efforts    

 

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·      Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is increased 1.0 MMT to 43.0 MMT.  The best corn in Argentina is going to be early planted crop in central regions.  Farmers in this region are reporting some very good early yields

·      Weather: In Argentina, corn in more southern areas continues to be short on moisture.  However, light to moderate showers develop this week in this region with some locally heavier totals 

·      ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 corn ending stocks estimate is 1.814 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 1.735 bbu. 

·      U.S. corn exports in Sep-Feb totaled 1.016 bbu—up 36% v. last year—but increased competition is likely in March-Aug

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is increased 0.5 MMT to 113.5 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias.  Weather last week was beneficial for the 2 areas where beans could still be helped: Rio Grande do Sul and Northeast

·      Weather: In Brazil, episodes of rain develop Thu.-Sun. in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which would benefit soybeans

·      ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.969 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.910 bbu

·      ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 HRs wheat ending stocks estimate is 0.267 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.262 bbu

·      Weather: In the U.S., mostly dry weather affects HRW wheat through Fri.; temperatures stay cold today, then variable

ENERGY

·      Mixed: CLJ19, +$0.02 @ $56.61; EBK, -$0.14 @ $65.53; EBK-QCLK, -$0.16; RBJ, +.0107; NGJ, +.022; HOJ, -0.0110

·      Chicago ethanol rose $.0025 yesterday to $1.33625;  basis, mixed: New York, unch @ $.11875; Gulf, -$.00250 @ $.09875; Dallas, +$.00250 @ $.10375; Tampa, +.01250 @ $.22875; LA, +$.0175 @ $.22375   

·      Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +0.50 @ 18 -18 ½; 2018’s,+0.50 @ 19 -19 ½; 2019’s, +0.625 @ 21 – 21 ¾                                            

​ ·      The April RBOB/March ethanol spread gained $.0147 yesterday to+$.4070/gallon     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   ​     

• Choice boxed beef firmed $2.26 on Monday to $223.55, and is $4.00 higher compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.86 v. last week at $128.22/cwt, and is $1.46 higher v. last year

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.33 higher on Mon. at $61.33, & is up $1.75 versus last week

• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.20 on Mon. to $51.93.  April futures gained $0.925 and are $5.395 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather