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Trends CZ Down 3, SX down 4, WZ down 4

October 2, 2019 07:28 AM

ATI Morning Comments: 10-02-2019

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Shonkwiler, Larry
Attachments6:41 AM (45 minutes ago)
 
  
to Morning, Jaci
 
 
 
 
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Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

 

HIGHLIGHTS • TRENDS—Lower: CZ, -$.0350; SX, -$.0475; WZ, -$.06; KWZ, -$.04 • What caught my eye: From the stocks report, this spring’s adverse weather appears to have made producers in IL and IN tight holders of corn as September 1 inventory levels in both states were more than double a year ago; OH, less so--nearly unchanged• Markets continue to react negatively to a slowing global economy. ASIA: Lower--Nikkei, -0.49%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, closed. EUROPE: Weaker —DAX, -1.31%; FTSE, -2.07%; CAC, -1.66%. WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-- DOW, -161; S&P, -17.50; NAS, -54.00. EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.09 @ $53.71; Gold: +$0.30 @ $1,490; $ Index: +.176 @ 99.304• Weather: episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms impact the western U.S. Corn Belt today. Heavy totals are expected. Dry weather is forecast for Thursday, although scattered showers and thunderstorms return later Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the eastern Corn Belt today before ending on Thursday. Light amounts are forecast for most, although locally heavy rain is possible. Dry weather is forecast on Friday before scattered rain returns Saturday-Sunday• CZ, dn $.0350 @ $3.89; CH, dn $.0375 @ $4.0075. Funds continue buying, 10 K on Tuesday • SX, dn $.0475 @ $9.1475; SF, dn $.04 @ $9.2850. Funds: Bought 6 SB, 8 SBM, & sold 3 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.67, -3; LY, $1.55• WZ, dn $.06 @ $4.9275; WH, dn $.0575 @ $5.00. The funds bought 3 K yesterday CORN/SORGHUM

  • December 2019 corn futures on Tuesday closed at $3.92 ½, the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 12
  • Weather: temps remain much above normal for corn in the western U.S. Corn Belt today, with highs in the middle 80s to low 90s.  Temps fall considerably starting Thursday-Friday, with a risk of scattered frost & light freeze further north
  • ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is 15-25 mbu per week and remains skewed towards the lower end
  • Ethanol margins: $0.06 per gallon—dn vs. $0.09 last week and below $0.13 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • November 2019 soybean futures on Tue. closed at $9.19 ½, the highest settlement price for the contract since July 15
  • Weather: temps remain much above normal for soybeans in western U.S. Corn Belt today, with highs in middle 80s to low 90s.  Temps fall considerably starting Thursday-Friday, with a risk of scattered frost & light freeze further north
  • Weather: mostly dry weather is forecast through the weekend for eastern Australia wheat; extreme heat is possible in some areas

ENERGY

·        Mixed: CLX19, +$0.0953 @ $53.71; EBZ, -$0.23 @ $58.65; EBZ-QCLZ, -.32; RBX, -.0049; NGX, +.009; HOX, -.0027

·        EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +1.2 (-5.9); Gasoline, 0.0 (+2.1); Distillates, -1.8 (-1.7).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.952 mbpd (range: 0.936-0.965).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.272 mb (range 21.950-22.536)

·        Chicago ethanol was up $.0150 to $1.66 yesterday; basis values were weaker:  NYC, -$.02 @ -$.0200; Gulf, -$.0350 @ $.0250; Dallas, -$.0050 @ -$.0650; Tampa, -$.0150 @ -$.0450; LA, -$.0350 @ $.0650

·        Ethanol RINs firmed: 2018’s, +3.00 @ 8 -14 ½; 2019’s, +2.50 @ 16 ½ -23                                     &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;          

·   ​;     The October RBOB/October ethanol widened $.0328 yesterday to $.0757/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                  

  • Choice boxed beef increased $1.03 on Tuesday to $213.47 but is still down $1.92 compared to a week ago   
  • In cash markets, a few head of cattle sold in Iowa Tuesday for $106 live and $165 dressed

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.82 on Tue. to $74.87 and is up $5.28 versus last week  

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.62 on Tue. to $57.05.  October futures fell $2.90 but are still $5.50 above the index                           

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

ATI Morning Comments: 10-02-2019

Inbox
 x
 
 
​  

Shonkwiler, Larry
Attachments6:41 AM (45 minutes ago)
 
 &nb​sp;
to Morning, Jaci
​
 
 
 
 
​
 
 
 
 
​ 

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

 

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ​ December 2019 corn futures on Tuesday closed at $3.92 ½, the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 12
  • Weather: temps remain much above normal for corn in the western U.S. Corn Belt today, with highs in the middle 80s to low 90s.  Temps fall considerably starting Thursday-Friday, with a risk of scattered frost & light freeze further north
  • ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is 15-25 mbu per week and remains skewed towards the lower end
  • Ethanol margins: $0.06 per gallon—dn vs. $0.09 last week and below $0.13 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • November 2019 soybean futures on Tue. closed at $9.19 ½, the highest settlement price for the contract since July 15
  • Weather: temps remain much above normal for soybeans in western U.S. Corn Belt today, with highs in middle 80s to low 90s.  Temps fall considerably starting Thursday-Friday, with a risk of scattered frost & light freeze further north
  • Weather: mostly dry weather is forecast through the weekend for eastern Australia wheat; extreme heat is possible in some areas

ENERGY

·        Mixed: CLX19, +$0.0953 @ $53.71; EBZ, -$0.23 @ $58.65; EBZ-QCLZ, -.32; RBX, -.0049; NGX, +.009; HOX, -.0027

·        EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +1.2 (-5.9); Gasoline, 0.0 (+2.1); Distillates, -1.8 (-1.7).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.952 mbpd (range: 0.936-0.965).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.272 mb (range 21.950-22.536)

·        Chicago ethanol was up $.0150 to $1.66 yesterday; basis values were weaker:  NYC, -$.02 @ -$.0200; Gulf, -$.0350 @ $.0250; Dallas, -$.0050 @ -$.0650; Tampa, -$.0150 @ -$.0450; LA, -$.0350 @ $.0650

·        Ethanol RINs firmed: 2018’s, +3.00 @ 8 -14 ½; 2019’s, +2.50 @ 16 ½ -23                           ​ &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                   ​​

·        The October RBOB/October ethanol widened $.0328 yesterday to $.0757/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​    &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;           

  • Choice boxed beef increased $1.03 on Tuesday to $213.47 but is still down $1.92 compared to a week ago   
  • In cash markets, a few head of cattle sold in Iowa Tuesday for $106 live and $165 dressed

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.82 on Tue. to $74.87 and is up $5.28 versus last week  

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.62 on Tue. to $57.05.  October futures fell $2.90 but are still $5.50 above the index                        &nb​sp;  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 <​/p>



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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