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TRENDS CN, Up 4, SN, Up 5, WN, Down 2

June 30, 2020 07:44 AM

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports to be released at 11:00 am CDT.  Dely: SBM, 10, SBO, 2,402; SRW, 151

·       TRENDS—Mostly lower: CN, -$.0150; SN, unch; WN, -$.07; KWN, -$.0250

·       What caught my eye:  Cordonnier quietly went up 2 MMT on his estimate of the Brazilian corn crop to 98.0, mostly due to increased planted area, particularly in Mato Grosso where it was up 11%. The USDA is 101.0

·       Chinese factory output reaches a 3 month high but global markets are mixed.  Asia: Firm--Nikkei, +1.33%; Shanghai, +0.78%; Hang Seng, +0.52%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.29%; FTSE, -0.40%; CAC, +0.06.  WALL STREET: Futures, Mostly lower --DOW, -66; S&P, -5; NAS, +29.99   EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$0.47 @ $38.23Gold: +$2.40 $1,784; Sep $ Index, +.244 @ 97.745

·       T-storm Weather®: scattered thunderstorms form into Wed. across U.S. central Corn Belt as the transition to warmth completes, producing an axis of 1.00"-2.00” of rain in parts of IL, IA, MO, MN & WI (esp. in southwest WI & near IL-MO border).  Separately, scattered rain continues in Dakotas as waves of energy flow along edge of hot air, producing 0.50”-1.50” on driest spring wheat

  • CN, dn $.0150 @ $3.2475; CU, dn $.0075 @ $3.28.  Drier outlook, funds buy 20 K                          
  • SN, unch @ $8.6650; SQ, up $.0025 @ $8.6175.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 5 SBO, sold 2 SBM.  Board crush: $0.54 (N/N), -1; LY, $1.00
  • WN, dn $.07 @ $4.7850; WU, dn $.0425 @ $4.825.  The funds bought back the 8 K they sold on Friday                    

; WU, CORN/SORGHUM

·       June 30 USDA reports: trade pegs U.S. corn acreage at 95.2 mil (vs. 97.0 in March); June 1 corn stocks est. 4.951 bbu

·       USDA estimates U.S. corn silking as of June 28 at 4% vs. 2% last year and the 5-year avg. of 7%; updated corn crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 73% compared to 72% last week and 56% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: beyond Wed., most rains will be in northern U.S. crop producing areas but less-so elsewhere, likely leaving a wide area of corn drier than normal over the next 10 to 14 days; best rain chances north, lowest south

·       ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 20/21 pegged at 3.184 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 3.323 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: Ukraine corn is at risk over the next 7-10 days from much drier and warmer than normal weather

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

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