HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—(5:40 am): CH, +$.0150; SH, +$.0075; WH, +$.0225; KWH, +$.02
• MACRO:  Possible win-win trade deal with China in the offing?  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +0.82%; Shanghai, -0.26%; Hang Seng, +0.15%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.61%; FTSE, +0.80%; CAC, +1.18%.  WALL STREET: Markets should open higher: DOW, +154; S&P, +15.75; NAS,+38.25.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$0.75 @ $49.27; Gold: -$5.50 @ $1,284; Mar $ Index, +.202 @ 96.430.  Del’y: SBM, 480; SBO, 122; SB, 1,152
• T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure will likely suppress rainfall across much of Brazil over the next 10-14 days with amounts limited to 1-2” across 35% of the production are; 2-3” for approximately 40% and 3-5” for the remaining 25% of the area.  This is in contrast with normal rainfall of from 3 ½” to 5”.  Scattered t-storms were in progress mid-day Monday in the western and southern soybean areas, but coverage will be lower for the remainder of the week.

·       CH, up $.0150 @ $3.8375; CK, up $.0125 @ $3.9150.  The funds sold an estimated 2 K to begin the week            

• SH, up $.0075 @ $9.25; SK, up $.0125 @ $9.3825.  Funds: bot 3 K SB, 3 SBM & sold 2 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.98, +1; LY: $1.09 
• WH, up $.0225 @ $5.19; WK, up $.0275 @ $5.2425.  Fund selling on Monday:  3 K                

    CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn exports for the 18/19 crop year through Jan 3^rd stood at 727 mbu, which is 62% above last year’s 450 total

·       Inspections pace has fallen nearly 15% the past month to 32 mbu/week, well off the 50/week average needed to keep pace with the USDA forecast as shipments from particularly the Ukraine accelerate

·       ATI Research: December 1 corn stocks estimated at 12.1 bbu, down 511 from the 2017 total

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, heavy storm clusters will develop over the next 2 weeks, beginning North as early as Tuesday. Above normal amounts, widespread coverage with more than 5” expected in the northern growing regions

·       China said to have booked 15-20 cargoes of U.S. soybeans to complete 5 M MT (184 mbu).  Business is sorely needed as QII SB inspections LY averaged 46/week; TY’s 498 forecast had looked high the longer China remained absent

·       China’s sluggish start to BA agreement back in late November leads to ATI cutting back export forecast 116 mbu. 18/19 carry-out rises 72 million from previous estimate on lower exports & 44 mbu reduction in crop size

·       U.S. wheat exports for the 18/19 crop year through Jan 3^rd  total 475 mbu, which is 13% below LY

·       Estimated QII 543 mbu soybean export forcast beginning to look too high the longer China remains mostly absent

·       Rain will develop in the feedlot areas of Oklahoma and Texas later this week and again next week with unseasonably mild temperatures

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLG19, +$0.77 @ $49.27; EBG, +$1.02 @ $58.35; EBG-QCLG, +$0.21; RBG, +.0199; NGG, +.062; HOG, +.0297

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00625 Monday to $1.26875; basis values were weaker: New York, -$.02125 @ $.13375; Gulf, -$.00875 @ $.12625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ $.10625; Tampa, -$.01375 @ $.21125; and LA, -$.01875 @ $.20625    

·       Ethanol RINs were lower: 2017’s, -1.50 @ 12-14; 2018’s, -0.75 @ 16-18; 2019’s, -1.50 @ 18-20                            

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread narrowed $0.0170 to +$.0568/gal 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nbs​p;          

• Choice boxed beef was unchanged on Monday at $214.01 but is still $1.07 lower vs. a week ago

·       Estimates for Monday cattle slaughter at 118 K, up from 71 K LW and versus 117 K LW; hogs, 480 vs 402 LW vs 458 LY

·       AM USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.95 on Monday to $71.65 and is down 73-cents vs. last week

·       Board Hog Crush: $41.54 versus $42.08 LW and $49.91 a year ago at this time

 Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather