HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—CH, +1/4; SF, +2 ¾; WH, - 2 ½; KWH, -3.  Pres. Trump on Monday authorized 2^nd round of MFP payments
• MACRO:  Slight rebound possible today but same old story . . .  global growth concerns.  WH using bully pulpit on Fed to hold the line on interest rates.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -1.82%; Shanghai, -0.82%; Hang Seng, -1.05%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, +0.43%; FTSE, -0.39%;CAC, -0.03%.  WALL STREET: Futures are positive?  DOW, +92; S&P, +11;NAS, +35.25.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: -$1.364 @ $48.52; Dec19 Gold: +$2.00 @ $1,285; Mar $ Index, -.340 @ 96.210.

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, thunderstorms affect Rio Grande do Sul the next several days as a cool front slowly approaches. The front then triggers thunderstorms across much of Brazil Dec. 20-22, then further north throughout next week.  Heavy rain will recur in/near northern Argentina next several days, producing heavy totals along to just north of concentrated corn, soybean, sunflower, & wheat production.  Some showers also affect southern areas Wed. or Thu., but only light totals are expected

·       CH, up $.0025 @ $3.8425; CK, up $.0025 @ $3.92.  Fund activity was said to be a net zero on Monday           

• SF, up $.0275 @ $9.0750; SH, up $.0275 @ $9.2075.  Funds: bot 3 K SB, 2 SBM & sold 4 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.85, -4; LY: $1.02 
• WH, dn $.0250 @ $5.3275; WK, dn $.02 @ $5.3975.  Fund buying totaled 4 K, said to be tied to global supply worries               

 CORN/SORGHUM

·    &​nbsp;  Consultant: Dry weather in southern Brazil is impacting full-season corn; much of the crop in this region is pollinating and starting to fill grain.  Production estimates for full-season corn may decline if the dry weather pattern persists

·       T-storm Weather: In southern Brazil, a wet and cooler period begins Thu.-Fri. for full-season corn & then continues for 7-10 days; near-normal rainfall of 2.50”-4.50” is expected over the next 10-14 days, namely from late-week forward

·       U.S. corn exports for the 18/19 crop year through Dec. 13 were 630 mbu, which is 73% above last year’s 364 mbu

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 18/19 U.S. corn is 1.870 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 1.781 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In southern Brazil, a wet and cooler period begins Thu.-Fri. for soybeans and then continues for 7-10 days; near-normal rainfall of 2.50”-4.50” is expected over the next 10-14 days, namely from late-week forward

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean est. unch at 122.0 MMT, first reports of harvest are coming in from mid-north Mato Grosso

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 18/19 U.S. soybeans is 0.916 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 0.955 bbu

·       U.S. wheat exports for the 18/19 crop year through Dec. 13 were 430 mbu, which is 15% below last year’s 505 mbu

·       T-storm Weather: The intensity and coverage of dryness has near-fully diminished in wheat areas of Russia & Ukraine

·        ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 18/19 U.S. all wheat is 0.969 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 0.974 bbu

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLF19, -$1.36 @ $48.52; EBG, -$1.61 @ $58.00; EBG-QCLG, -$0.25; RBF, -.0307; NGF, +.094; HOF, -.0312

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0440 Monday to $1.2675; basis values were weaker: New York, -$.03650 @ $.1225; Gulf, -$.0690 @ $.0575; Dallas, -$.0390 @ $.0675; Tampa, -$.0340 @ $.2125; and LA, -$.0440 @ $.1925    

·       Ethanol RINs were lower: 2017’s, -0.75 @ 19-22; 2018’s, -1.25 @ 21-23; 2019’s, -1.50 @ 24-26                            

·   &n​bsp;   The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread narrowed further, tightening $.0249 to+$.1514/gal 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &nb​sp;                     

• Choice boxed beef increased $1.71 on Monday to $212.67 but is still $2.75 lower vs. a week ago
• Estimates for Dec. 20 USDA Cattle on Feed: Dec. 1 on feed, 101.8%; Placed in Nov., 93.4%; Marketed in Nov., 101.0%
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 6-cents on Monday to $70.45 and is down 73-cents vs. last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $44.03/cwt vs. last week’s $44.98, last month’s $45.46 & last year’s $47.64

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather