HIGHLIGHTS
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TREND—Mixed: CZ, -$.0075; SX, -$.0350; WZU, +$.0325; KWZ, +$.0175.
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MACRO: U.S. initiates 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion worth of PRC imports, mostly tech, rate increases to 25% by year-end. But, overseas markets edge higher . . . ASIA: Up: Nikkei, +1.41%; Shanghai, +1.82; Hang Seng, +0.56%. EUROPE: Positive: DAX, +0.32%; FTSE, +0.20%; CAC, +0.34%. WALL STREET: Futures are higher as well: DOW, +56; S&P, +5.75; NAS, +22.50. EXTERNALS: Oct crude:+$0.79 @ $69.70; Dec Gold: -$2.60 @ $1,202; Dec $ Index, +0.074 @ 94.150.
· T-storm Weather: Numerous heavy thunderstorms affect the northwest third to half of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Plains from today through Thursday night, while dry and mild weather continue to aid corn / soybean harvesting and wheat planting elsewhere. Drier areas receive rain within Friday-Sunday when cooler air shifts slightly southward, producing heavy rain in HRW wheat areas of the Plains, and seasonable rainfall across the Corn Belt, but not the Delta where drying continues
· CZ, dn $.0075 @ $3.4725; CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.5950. The funds opened trading this week by selling 10 K
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SX, dn $.0350 @ $8.20; SF, dn $.0350 @ $8.3375. Funds: Sold 5 SB, 5 SBM & even on SBO. Board Crush: $1.45, 0, LY: $.88
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WZ, up $.0350 @ $5.0975; WH, up $.35 @ $5.2825. Fund selling put at 3 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn crop is rated 68% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but well above 61% last year. Corn mature is 54% vs. 32% last year and the 5-year avg. of 36%. Corn harvest is 9% vs. 7% last year and the 5-year avg. of 6%
· ATI Research: Updated 2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks estimate is 1.759 bbu versus September USDA est. of 1.774
· U.S. sorghum crop is rated 53% Good/Excellent, unchanged versus last week but well below 65% last year
· T-storm Weather: Some additional rainfall is likely across a wide area of U.S. corn production next week, but not heavy totals as affect the central / southern Plains and northwest Corn Belt this week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean crop is rated 67% Good/Excellent vs. 68% last week and 59% last year. Dropping leaves is 53% vs. 38% last year & the 5-year avg of 36%. Soybean harvest is 6% versus 4% last year and double the 5-year avg. of 3%
· ATI Research: Updated 2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks est. is 1.110 bbu versus September USDA est. of 0.845
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T-storm Weather: In Australia, little to no rain over the next 10 days intensifies drought for wheat but heat does not occur. A total of 92% of production has been drier than normal over the last two weeks (& 68% over the last 30 days)
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ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term
· U.S. winter wheat planting is 13% vs. 12% last year and the 5-year avg. of 14%
ENERGY
· Firm: CLV18, +$0.79 @ $69.70; EBX, +$1.01 @ $79.06; EBX-QCLX, +$0.17;RBV, +0.0254; NGV, +.009; HOV, +.0274
· Cash ethanol had Chicago quoted at $1.2750, down $.0065; Basis to Chicago were mixed—New York, +$0.0950; Gulf, +$0.0935; Dallas, +$0.0735; Tampa, +$0.2035; and LA, +$0.2685
· Ethanol RINs had 2017’s ¾ weaker @ 14-14 ¼; 2018’s were also ¾ lower @ 20 – 20 ½
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread widened $.0136 on Monday to +$.7028 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values were $1.77 higher on Monday at $206.04 but are still 26-cents lower vs. a week ago
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $2.99 last week to $110.66/cwt and is $4.77 higher v. last year
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.52 on Monday to $74.69 and is up $8.06 vs. last week
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Current nearby board hog crush value is $35.81/cwt vs. last week’s $33.74, last month’s $29.49 & last year’s $33.97
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather