HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Mixed to a smidge lower: CK, +$.0075; SK, -$.0050; WK, -$.0075; KWK, -$.0025.
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What caught my eye: More corn export competition in yesterday’s WASDE: nearly 3 MMT greater production expected for S AM & Ukraine; partiall offset might be 1.6 MMT swing in South Africa’s postion & ½ MMT increase to net EU imports
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Futures suggest a positive opening; markets higher in Asia and Europe. Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, -0.53%; Shanghai, +0.07%; Hang Seng, -0.13%. EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.40%; FTSE, +0.12%; CAC, +0.41%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher--DOW, +40; S&P, +5.25; NAS, +12.00. EXTERNALS: June crude: +$.49 @ $64.45; Gold: +$0.20 @ $1,309; $ Index, NA
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T-storm Weather: An extremely intense system produces heavy precipitation of 0.50” to 2.50” across northeast CO, far northwest KS, NE, SD, & the northern half of the Corn Belt through Thursday. Mainly dry weather occurs to the south, except for eastern IL, IN, & OH when severe thunderstorms pass Thursday afternoon & evening. Importantly, 10” to 20” of snow falls from / near western NE through much of SD & southern MN, & 30” in / near a small part of SD as the system unleashes a blizzard
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CK, up $.0025 @ $3.6075; CN, up $.0125 @ $3.6975. Fund trading in response to the April WASDE found them even
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SK, dn $.0050 @ $8.9825; SN, dn $.0025 @ $9.1150. Funds: Sld 1 SB, even 2 SBM & bot 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.01, +2; LY, $1.45
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WK, dn $.0075 @ $4.5875; WN, dn $.01 @ $4.63. The funds followed up Monday’s selling with another 5 K on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports may struggle to hit the USDA’s 2.300 bbu forecast. Unshipped export sales are not terribly impressive and the supply/demand report showed another 3.1 MMT rise in foreign corn export competition
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is unch at 94.5 MMT; weather remains beneficial for safrinha (double crop) corn
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T-storm Weather: In the U.S. a wet system produces 0.25”-0.75” across southeast third to half of Corn Belt Sat.-Sun.
· Ethanol margins: $0.13 per gallon—up vs. $0.08 last week but well below $0.34 in 2018. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is increased 1.0 MMT to 55.0 MMT with a neutral to higher bias going forward. Very good yields in central Argentina are expected to compensate for lower yields in southwest areas
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry weather dominates over the next 5-7 days, which should favor soybean harvest
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ATI Research: Surprising jump in world wheat stocks (+5.1 MMT) in USDA S/D report highlights ample supply outlook
· T-storm Weather: 68% of HRW wheat was drier than normal last 2 weeks; below normal rain for most of KS near term
ENERGY
· Higher: CLM19, +$.497 @ $64.45; EBM, +0.49 @ $71.10; EBM-QCLM, 0; RBM, +.0261; NGM, -.005; HOM, +.0127
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.3 (+4.1); Gasoline, -2.0 (-7.1); Distillates, -1.3 (-2.4). Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.995 mbpd (range: 0.985-1.008). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.972 mb (range 23.873-24.092)
· Chicago ethanol was off $.00625 to $1.30 Tuesday; basis, mixed: New York, +$.01125 @ $.15750; Gulf, -$.03875 @ $.11; Dallas, -$.00375 @ $.1150; Tampa, -$.00375 @ $.2150; LA, +$.00125 @ $.40
· Ethanol RINs, mixed: 2018’s, -0.25 @ 11 ½ -12 ½; 2019’s, +0.3750 @ 16 -16 ½  
· The May RBOB/May ethanol spread was again wider, out $.0180 to+$.6910/gallon Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef eased 35-cents on Tuesday to $228.32, but is still $2.59 higher compared to a week ago
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Tuesday’s week-to-week increase in choice boxed beef values was the largest since March 13
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 28-cents on Tuesday to $81.44, but is still up $1.40 versus last week
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CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.21 on Tue. to $78.89. April futures declined $0.075 and are $0.365 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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