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MARKET TREND Weaker CZ down 2, SX down 6, WZ down 2

September 28, 2017 07:04 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Weaker: CZ: down $.0125; SX: down $.0675; WZ: down $.0150; KWZ: down $.0175

·        MACRO:  White House’s tax plan said to be widely expected but what the structure of the final package will be is yet to be determined. ASIA—Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, +0.47%; Shanghai,-0.15%; Hang Seng, -0.80%.  EUROPE: Firmer:  DAX,+0.36%; FTSE,+0.10%; CAC, +0.22%.   WALL STREET—Futures indicate a lower start—DOW, -12; S&P, -1.00; NAS, -3.75.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index+.+029 @ 93.200; Gold-$1.50 @ $1,282; Nov crude:+$0.58 @ $52.72/bl. 

  • T-storm Weather: Except for rain in HRW wheat of Colorado & southwest Plains, most areas stay dry through at least Sun.  A number of chances for rain follow within northwest half of the Corn Belt & adjacent areas of the Plains from Sun.-Mon. forward, leading to 0.67" to 1.33" of rain next week, but likely leaving driest corn, soybean, & SRW wheat areas of the Delta & southeast Corn Belt fairly dry over the next 10 days. Temps will be seasonable to cool over the next few days; sharply warmer next week
  • CZ, down $.0125 @ $3.5275; CH, down $.0125 @ $3.6550.  Fund buying was estimated at 4 K on Wednesday  
  • SX, down $.0675 @ $9.5875; SF, down $.07 @ $9.6925.  Funds:  got 2 SB; 4 SBM; sold 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $.77, -4; LY: $.73
  • WZ, down $.0150 @ $4.60; WH, down $.0175 @ $4.5725. Fund buying yesterday totaled 5 K 

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 20-31 mbu for 17/18 corn

  • T-storm Weather: Corn Belt temps will be seasonable to slightly-cool for most through Fri.  A notably warmer period unfolds west to east over Sat.-Mon.; an early freeze is not foreseen for corn over the next 7-10 days, and likely longer

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn mature on average increases approximately 15% over Sep. 24-Oct. 1 to approximately 79%, while corn harvest on average increases approximately 9% over Sep. 24-Oct. 1 to approximately 26%

  • Ethanol grind: Total of 996,000 barrels/day for week end Sep. 22—dn 37 thou v. prior week but up 0.7% v. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 66-81 for 17/18 soybeans; soymeal, 25-100 K MT for 16/17 and 50-150 for 17/18; soyoil, 0-10 K MT for 16/17 and 0-20 for 17/18 

  • T-storm Weather: Most central U.S. soybeans will be dry through at least Sun.  Thereafter, some rain affects the northern & western halves of the Corn Belt & adjacent areas of the central and northern Plains; 0.67”-1.33” amounts

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, 0.50”-1.50” of rain occurs through Sun. across northeast half.  Much lesser amounts occur to the south, leaving reproductive wheat that was unseasonably wet early this month considerably drier

ENERGY

·        Mixed: CLX17+$0.58 @ $52.72; EBX+$0.50 @ $58.40; EBX-QCLX-$.09RBX-.0072; NGX, +.003; HOX, -.0023

·        Weakness was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago fell 3 ¼; New York down 1 ¼; Gulf eased 1 ¾; Dallas declined 1 ½; Tampa off 1; and LA was 3 lower at $1.66 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were significantly weaker on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s fell 7 3/8 to 66-78

·        The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread lost $.0328 yesterday, falling to +$.13900/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;   

  • Choice boxed beef values declined $1.48 on Wednesday to $195.30, but are still $3.26 higher compared to last week
  • Quarterly Hogs and Pigs 2:00 pm CDT: Avg. trade est, All Hogs and Pigs, 102.5%; Breeding, 101.2%, Marketing, 102.6%

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 18-cents lower on Wed. at $71.99, & is down $3.80 vs. a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.73 on Wed. to $56.25.  October futures increased $0.15 but are $0.85 below the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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