HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Weaker: CZ: down $.0050; SX: down $.0325; WZ: down $.0150; KWZ: down $.02  

·       MACRO:  Skepticism over Washington’s lower corporate & individual taxes proposal will boost growth enough to offset the revenue loss. ASIA—Mostly firmer:  Nikkei,-0.03%; Shanghai, +0.29%; Hang Seng, +0.48%.  EUROPE: Firmer:  DAX,+0.36%; FTSE, +0.65%; CAC, +0.20%.   WALL STREET—Futures point to slightly lower opening—DOW, -8; S&P, -1.00; NAS, +8.00.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index: +.073 @ 93.005; Gold: +$2.00 @ $1,288; Nov crude:+$0.09 @ $51.65/bl.  Del’y: SBM, 300; SBO, 395

• T-storm Weather: Most U.S. crop areas stay dry & seasonable to cool through Sat.  Sharp warming follows from west to east, with unusual warmth for the central/southern Plains, Delta, & southeast half of the Corn Belt; highs reach the 80s for 7-10 days.  Dry weather accompanies warmth across Delta/southeast third to half of Corn Belt next week, while rain affects central/northern Plains and northwest Corn Belt.  Amounts of 1.25" to 2.50" are most probable within the northwest half of corn & soybeans
• CZ, down $.0050 @ $3.52; CH, down $.0075 @ $3.6450.  The funds sold 4 K ahead of today’s USDA stocks report  
• SX, down $.0325 @ $9.5625; SF, down $.0325 @ $9.67.  Funds:  sold 5 K SB; 2 SBM; 6 SBO.  Board Crush: $.74,-3; LY: $.69
• WZ, down $.0150 @ $4.5350; WH, down $.0125 @ $4.73.  Fund selling on Thursday:  4 K  

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA Grain Stocks report at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess U.S. Sep. 1 corn stocks, 2.346 bbu (range 2.310-2.380)

·       ATI Research: Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. corn as of Sep. 21 stood at 362 mbu, which is down 37% from 571 mbu at this time a year ago

• T-storm Weather: Multiple rains affect U.S. Plains & northwest third to half of Corn Belt next week.  From Oct. 1-10, at least 1.00” of rain affects all of MN, western two-thirds of IA, eastern half of NE, eastern third of SD & central KS

·       Consultant: Approx. 40% of Brazil’s full-season corn crop could be in a region that is forecasted to hotter and drier than normal during Oct-Dec.  Full-season corn will represent approx. 30% of Brazil’s total corn production in 17/18

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Grain Stocks report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess U.S. Sep. 1 soybean stocks, 0.339 bbu (range 0.321-0.363)

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean harvest on average gains approximately 14% over Sep. 24-Oct. 1 to approximately 26%

• ATI Research: Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Sep. 21 stood at 707 mbu, which is down 19% from 871 mbu at this time a year ago

·       USDA Grain Stocks report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sep. 1 wheat stocks, 2.203 bbu (range 2.083-2.450)

• USDA Small Grains Summary report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. guess for U.S. all wheat crop, 1.724 bbu (range 1.665-1.800)

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLX17, +$0.09 @ $51.65; EBX, +$0.27 @ $57.68;EBX-QCLX, +$.17; RBX, +.0050; NGX, +.007; HOX, -.0029

·       Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago and Gulf added 1; New York firmed ¾; Dallas eased ½; Tampa fell 1 ½; and LA was a penny lower at $1.65 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were significantly weaker again on Thursday: 2016’s and 2017’s declined 5 to 62-72

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread tightened up $.0572on Thursday, settling at +$.08180/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​        

• Choice boxed beef values increased $1.11 on Thursday to $196.41, and are up $4.90 vs. a week ago
• Hogs and Pigs report: All hogs & pigs, 102.5% (102.5% avg. est); breeding, 101.2% (101.2%); market, 102.6% (102.6%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 5-centson Thursday to $71.94, and is 84-cents lower vs. last week

• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.71 on Thu. to $55.54.  October futures firmed $0.15 and are now $0.01 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather