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MARKET TREND Weaker CZ down 1, SF down 1,WZ down 3

November 27, 2017 07:57 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Weaker: CZ: down $.01; SF: down $.01; WZ: down $.0275; KWZ: down $.0225 

·         MACRO.  Asia closes weaker but so far Europe and U.S. futures are in positive territory.  ASIA—Lower: Nikkei, -0.24%; Shanghai, -0.92%; Hang Seng,-0.60%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.32%; FTSE, +0.37%; CAC, +0.29%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher—DOW, +32; S&P, +3.00; NAS, +7.00.  EXTERNALS: $ Index-.102 @ 93.605; Gold+$6.70 @ $1,288; Jan crude: -$0.50 @ $58.45/bl. 

  • T-storm Weather: Across central and eastern growing areas of Argentina, areas of high pressure suppress rainfall over the next 10 days.  That said, some thunderstorms are probable next week and/or early the following week, but only scattered 0.25” to 0.75” amounts are expected.  In contrast, numerous cool fronts pass and dissipate in central and northern areas of Brazil over the next 10 days, causing thunderstorms to occasionally form & produce above-normal rainfall of 2.25” to 4.50” over the period
  • CZ, CZ, down $.01 @ $3.4125; CH, down $.0125 @ $3.5375.  The funds sold K in Friday’s trade.    
  • SF, down $.01 @ $9.9225; SH, down $.01 @ $10.0375.  Funds: sold 3 SB, 1 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.97, +$.01; LY, $.71 ½ 
  • WZ, down $.0275 @ $4.13; WH, down $.0275 @ $4.32.  Fund selling was estimated at 6 K    

CORN/SORGHUM

·         December 2017 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.42 ¼; on year ago, December 2016 corn futures settled at $3.49 ¼

·         Consultant: Appox. 35% of Argentina’s corn was planted during the first phase of planting in Sept-Oct.  This crop will be pollinating during Dec-Jan.  If the current dry pattern persists until mid-Dec., it could negatively impact pollination

·         T-storm Weather: In western areas of Argentina, occasional rainfall forms within the western third to half of corn production over the next 10 days; 0.75”-1.50” amounts are probable, though 1.25”-1.50” is normal for the period

·         Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 40.6 mbu needed; 24.9 last week.  Milo—4.4 needed; 2.6 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         January soybean futures on Friday closed at $9.93 ¼.  This is up $0.02 ¾ from the previous Friday and is the highest Friday settlement price for the contract since Oct. 13

·         T-storm Weather: Forecasted rainfall across key Brazilian soybean areas of the Center-West and Southeast maintain moist soil profiles through at least early December; beans in this area typically become sensitive the next 2-6 weeks

·         Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 37.7 mbu needed; 78.3 last week

·         Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 20.0 mbu needed; 9.5 last week

·         ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat emergence on average increases approximately 4% from Nov. 19-26 to 92%

ENERGY

·         Lower: CLF18, -$0.50 @ $58.45; EBF, -$0.31 @ $63.55; EBF-QCLF-$0.31; RBF-.0064; NGF, +.075; HOF, -.0068

·         No report on Friday.  On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were mostly higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.38475, up $0.00725; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9; Gulf, +6; Dallas, +5 ½; Tampa, +18 ¼; and LA, +17 ½

·         No report Fri.  On Wed., ethanol RINs fell.: 2016’s dn 1 ¼ at 88-89 ½; 2017’s off 1 ¼ at 89-90; & 2018’s dn 1 ¼ to 89-90

·         The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread gained over 4 ½ cents on Friday to close at +$.417000/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                 

  • Choice boxed beef values increased $1.98 on Friday to $210.99, and $3.75 higher compared to a week ago
  • Dressed steer weight for week end Nov. 11: 902 lbs, unchanged v. last week, 899.4 for 4-week avg. and 918 last year

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 84-cents on Fri. to $81.67, and is u $1.64 compared to last week 

  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.32 on Fri. to $63.66.  December futures firmed $0.425 but are $0.41 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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