HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Weaker:  CU, -$.0150; SU, unch; WU, -$.07; KWU, -$.0625
• MACRO:  Markets higher on up-coming PRC/US trade talks although bullish sentiment capped by Trump’s comments on manipulation of the Yuan.   Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +0.09%; Shanghai, +1.31%; Hang Seng, +0.56%.  EUROPE:  Mostly higher:  DAX, +0.61%; FTSE, -0.12%; CAC, +0.73%.  WALL STREET: Futures are again higher: DOW, +64; S&P, +5.75; NAS, +21.00.  EXTERNALS: Sep crude: +$0.40 @ $66.83; Dec Gold: +$5.70 @ $1,200; Dec $ Index, -0.319 @ 95.045

·        T-storm Weather: Rain/showers will wind down the next 18-30 hours across the Corn Belt with an unseasonably cool period continuing for the next several days before a rapid and noticeable warming trend occurs Thursday-Saturday. This very warm to hot period while remain in place for 5-7 days, bringing near to above normal rainfall to the central and northern corn and soybean areas of the U.S.

·       CU, down $.0150 @ $3.6050; CZ, down $.0150 @ $3.75.  The funds began the week selling 6 K      

• SU, unch @ $8.8175; SX, down $.0025 @ $8.93.  Funds: bot 1 SB, 3 SBO, sold 2 SBM.  Board Crush: $1.54, -$.01, LY: $.90
• WU, down $.07 @ $5.3525; WZ, down $.0675 @ $5.5575.  Large speculators were sellers of an estimated 8 K on Monday      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Corn inspections at 43.2 mbu were a little short of the 47-55 trade estimate but very near the ATI implied rate of 44.2

·       ATI Research:  old crop exports revised 52 lower to 2.350 as 17/18 campaign winds down; 18/9 boosted 55 to 2.505 bbu, with an eye on the USDA’s 31.0 MMT Ukraine production forecast

·       Corn ratings fell 2 points to 68%, 2 points below LY but equal to the 5-year for August 19^th.  85% of the crop is now in the dough stag, 11 points ahead of LY and 13 above average.  44% has dented, 17 ahead of LY and 18 above avg

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 176.3 bpa (down 4/10’s from LW) and versus August USDA projection of 178.4.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 18/19 are now forecast at 111 mbu lower at 1.425 bbu (USDA at 1.684)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Wheat inspections were disappointing at 12.7, short of the 13.0-18.4 trade range with 21.1/week needed

·       Subject to US/PRC negotiations but recent “posturing” by the latter leads to a 127 mbu cut in 18/19 U.S. exports

·       U.S. soybean crop rated 65% Good/Excellent, again down a point  and vs 60%  LY and 66% avg. Pod setting is at 91% vs 84% last year & the 5-year avg. of 83%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield declined 4/10’s from LW to 50.1; crop is 29 mbu smaller at 4.485 bbu;

• ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring wheat crop est. is 3 lower at 569 mbu.  Harvest is at 60% vs. 55% LY, 44% avg.  U.S. winter wheat harvest: 97% vs. 98% last year and 98% for the five-year avg. 

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLU18, +$0.40 @ $66.83; EBV, +$0.12 @ $72.33; EBV-QCLV, +$0.07; RBU, +0.0080; NGU, +.040; HOU, +.0048

·       Cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.35875, steady;; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.0888; Gulf, +$0.0913; Dallas, +$0.04125; Tampa, +$0.17875; and LA, +$0.31625

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer Monday: 2017’s gained ¾’s to 16 ½-17; and 2018’s were 1/8 higher at 20-20.125

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread widened $.0402 Monday, to$.66010/gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &n​bsp;                 

• Choic​e boxed beef values increased $2.60 on Monday to $213.98, and are up $5.55 compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price eased $1.07 v. last week to $109.91/cwt but is $0.23 higher v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 6-cents on Monday to $66.09 but is down $3.59 vs. last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.43 on Monday to $51.51.  October futures fell $2.125 but are $4.965 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather