HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly Weaker: CN, -$.0125; SN, -$.0675; WN, -$.05; KWK, -$.04
• MACRO:  Market awaiting Fed policy comments as well as Chinese-U.S. trade talks.  Asia—Weaker: Nikkei, -0.16%NA; Shanghai, flat; Hang Seng, -0.27%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +1.11%; FTSE, +0.44%; CAC, +0.16%.  WALL STREET: Futures are mostly lower: DOW, -8; S&P, -1.00; NAS, +12.75.  EXTERNALS: June crude:+$0.08 @ $67.33; Aug Gold: +$4.40 @ $1,317.  Dely: SBM, 70; SBO, 17; RR, 2; C, 569; HRW, 256; O, 20; SB, 146

·       T-storm Weather: A strong system produces 1.00"-2.00" of rain across southeast two-thirds of Corn Belt (with pockets of higher amounts in Iowa & northern Illinois) throughFriday.  Drying follows/continues until an upper-level system passes over May 8-11, triggering rain within the southeast two-thirds of central U.S.; 0.50"-1.00" most common.  Note that temps going forward generally range from slightly-cool in eastern Corn Belt to above-normal in the Plains, leaving much of the central U.S. seasonable

·       CN, down $.0125 @ $4.0450; CU, dn $.0125 @ $4.1150.  More fund buying, 10 K purchased again on Tuesday                

• SN, dn $.0675 @ $10.4650; SQ, dn $.0750 @ $10.48. Funds: Bot 3 SB, 8 SBM, sold 4 SBO. Board crush:  $1.70, +15; LY: $.84
• WN, dn $.05 @ $5.2425; WU, dn $.0450 @ $5.3950.  The funds also bought 10 K wheat in yesterday’s trading                          
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CORN/SORGHUM

• ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approx. 17% fromApril 29-May 6 to 44%
• T-storm Weather: Mainly dry/hot weather dominate most Brazil second-crop corn for 2 weeks (& very likely longer) 

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop est. is unch at 32.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward.  The current minimum corn production est. for Argentina is 30.0 MMT and the maximum est. is 33.0.  Nationwide harvest is 31% complete

• Ethanol margins: $0.27 per gallon—equal to both last week and the level seen in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• ATI Research: USDA Fats & Oils report pegs March U.S. soybean crush at 182.2 mbu, an all-time monthly record & up 30.8 mbu v. March of 2017.  Current pace suggests potential 20 mbu increase in USDA’s 17/18 crush est. of 1.970 bbu

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 39.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward.  The current minimum bean production est. for Argentina is 37.0 MMT and the maximum est. is 41.0.  Nationwide harvest is 54% complete

·       ATI Research: 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat planting progress increases approx. 17% from April 29-May 6 to 53%

• T-storm Weather: Drier than normal weather is forecast the next 10-14 days for U.S. spring wheat in northern Plains

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLM18, +$0.08@$67.33; EBN, -$0.21@$72.92; EBN-QCLN, -$0.30; RBM,-.0141; NGM, -.017; HOM, +.0002

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +0.7 (+3.4); Gasoline, -1.0 (+1.6); Distillates, -1.1 (-4.1).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.004 mil barrels/day (range 0.988-1.014).  Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 22.1 mil barrels (range 21.7-22.9)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were slightly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.43375, down $0.0025; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11; Gulf, +9 ¼; Dallas, +8; Tampa, +21 ½; and LA, +26 ½

·       On Tuesday, ethanol RINs were steady to weaker: 2017’s steady at 27 ½-28; but 2018’s declined 1 to 31-33

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol spread shed $.0256 yesterday, falling to +$.65860/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &n​bsp;         

• Choice boxed beef values increased $2.01 on Tuesday to $226.43, and are $8.78 higher compared to last week 
• Over the past 8 trading days, choice boxed beef has gained $15.09 (7.1%)
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 6-cents on Tue. to $68.24, but is still 99-cents higher vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.25 on Tue. to $62.45.  May futures increased $1.15 and are $5.00 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather