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MARKET TREND Weaker CH, down 1,SF, down 4, WH, down 2

December 28, 2017 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Weaker: CH, down $.0075; SF, down $.0375; WH, down $.0175; KWH, down $.0175

·       MACRO.  Bitcoin drops 11% overseas after South Korea’s announced trading regulations for the cryptocurrency.  ASIA—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, -0.56%; Shanghai,+0.65%; Hang Seng, +0.90%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker: DAX,-0.16%; FTSE, +0.11%; CAC, -0.05%.  WALL STREET—Futures point to a firmer start—DOW, +41; S&P, +2.50; NAS,+15.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index-.162 @ 92.450; Gold+$3.50 @ $1,292; Feb crude: +$0.07@ $59.71. 

  • T-storm Weather: Central & northern Argentina will see scattered rain events this weekend but will then be followed by 5-7 days of dry weather as most areas see net drying the next two weeks. The outlook for the return of thunderstorms beyond this time period is uncertain at this point. Brazil will have near-normal rainfall, first across the southern and central areas and then the more northern areas next week    
  • CH, down $.0075 @ $3.53; CK, down $.01 @ $3.6125.  The funds bought 2 K on  Wednesday               
  • SF, down $.0375 @ $9.5175; SH, down $.0375 @ $9.6375.  Funds: Sold 2 SB, 2 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.00, +1; LY, $.72 
  • WH, down $.0175 @ $4.2625; WK, down $.0225 @ $4.39.  The funds bought 5 K yesterday              

  CORN/SORGHUM

·       A 2014 Bloomberg article reported 80% of Argentina’s grain, oilseeds and biodiesel exports move through Rosario

·       Outstanding U.S. corn sales of 624 mbu are 19% below a year ago BUT the total is the 3rd largest for mid-December in the past 10 years as recent activity of 38.4 mbui/week is running about 16% above the 10-year seasonal average

·       CH’s mid-week close of $3.53 ¾ marked the highest close since December 5th, also at $3.53 ¾

·       Mexico has been importing U.S. corn at a record clip with the YTD total of 170 million some 13%/19 million bushels ahead of last year. Unshipped sales are lagging 13% behind however but should accelerate in the coming weeks  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research:  Arg & Brazil were estimated to have 1.6 bbu of soybeans on hand at the start of December, a 226 mbu/16%  increase over 2016 with the increase split nearly equally among the two producers

·       SF ended Wednesday’s session at $9.5550, down 3 ¾ and 51 ¼ cents below the December 27 close for SF2017

·       March Chicago wheat closed at $4.28 yesterday, the highest level since the market ended at $4.32 ¾ on December 5th

  • The U.S. Plains will be under the influence of an extreme cold blast Sat-Sun, resulting in the coldest day in several years across the Central regions with temps ranging from slightly <0 in OK to the -20 to -30 F into the Dakotas. Some burnback and winterkill are likely on HRW

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLG18+$.07 @ $59.71; EBG, +$0.03 @ $66.47; EBG-QCLG, $0.00; RBG,-.0103; NGG, +.081; HOG, -.0119

·       EIA Petroleum Estimates (API): crude, -3.7 (-6.0); gasoline, +0.6 (+3.1); distillates, -0.5 (+2.8)

·       Chicago firmed ¾ of a cent to $1.2825/gallon. Basis to Chicago were mixed—New York, +11 ¾; Gulf, +7 ¾; Dallas, +6 ¾--all 1 ¼ firmer while Tampa, at +21 ¾ and LA, +22 ¾  were down ¾ to 1 ¾ 

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer: 2016’s were 64 ¾ to 65 ¾; 2017’s and 2018’s were both 65 1/8 to 66 5/8 

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread widened $.0049 on Wednesday to +$.49550/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;    

  • Choice boxed beef values declined $1.00 on Wednesday and are 16-cents lower compared to last week
  • Cash cattle trade has yet to develop with asking prices in the South at $122 to $125, but no packer bids reported
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 27-cents on Wed. to $75.93 and is 20-cents higher vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.03 on Wed. to $61.59.  February futures down $0.50, but are $9.435 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

    



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