HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Trade Fears: CK, -$.0450; SK, -$.1325; WK, -$.0725; KWK, -$.0475.  USDA Export Sales out at 7:30 am CDT
• MACRO: The DOW tanked yesterday, losing 700+ points and today doesn’t look much brighter as trade concerns escalate. Asia: Sharply Lower:  Nikkei, -4.51%;Shanghai, -3.38%; Hang Seng, -2.45%.  EUROPE: Down a fair amount: DAX, -1.83%; FTSE, -0.89%; CAC, -1.71%.  WALL STREET:  Futures rather worried—DOW, -154;S&P, -12.50; NAS, -56.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: -0.213 @ 88.430; Apr Gold: +$14.90@ $1,342; May crude: +$0.20 @ $64.50

·       T-storm Weather: A round of thunderstorms affects northern areas of Argentinatonight and Sat., but only light totals occur elsewhere, and at least one week of dry weather generally follows / continues.  Conversely, areas of rain affect Brazil at times, keeping vegetative second-crop corn moist through early April.  In the U.S., a swath of moderate to heavy rain and snow affect the northern Plains and Corn Belt today-Sat.  Dry (and mild) weather continues through at least Sun. in central/southern Plains 

·       CK, down $.0450 @ $3.7150; CN, down $.0450 @ $3.7150.  Pre-Friday fund buying totaled 4 K       

• SK, dn $.1325 @ $10.1650; SN, dn $.1350 @ $10.2725. Funds: even SB, bot 4 K SBM, sld 6 K SBO. Board crush:  $1.31, +3; LY: $.80
• WK, down $.0725 @ $4.4850; WN, down $.0675 @ $4.6525.  The funds were also buyers of 4 K yesterday               

 

CORN/SORGHUM

• Export Sales report 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 55-83 mbu for 17/18 corn; 20.3/week needed to reach USDA forecast
• T-storm Weather: Rainfall last weekend (March 17-18) had little to no impact on the coverage and intensity of dryness for Argentina corn.  Rainfall in Argentina from late-March through April is normally much-less frequent

·       Consultant: Although some rain fell across a narrow band in core corn production areas last weekend, it is not believed to be enough to change the overall weather pattern.  The range in corn production is 30.0-35.0 MMT

• December 2018 corn futures on Thursday closed $3.98—one year ago, December 2017 corn futures settled at $3.80

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales.  Trade expects 26-51 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; 100-300 K MT 17/18 soymeal; & 20-50 K MT 17/18 soyoil

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a fast-moving system triggers thunderstorms Fri.-Sat. in the north where 1.00”-2.00” falls, but largely misses areas to the south, leaving soybean areas generally dry with less to much-less than 0.33”

·       Consultant: Current maximum est. of Argentina soybean crop is 44.0 MMT & the current minimum est. is 40.0 MMT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 4-11 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a large system produces heavy rainfall in excess of 1.00”on Mon.-Thu. for the eastern fringe of HRW wheat in KS, OK & TX, although generalized rain of 0.50”-1.00” is most probable across a wide area

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLK18, +$.20 @ $64.50; EBK, +$.05 @ $68.96; EBK-QCLK, -$0.13; RBK, +.0022;NGK, -.007; HOK, -.0009

·       Chicago ethanol values rose 2 ¼ cents to $1.4725; basis versus Chicago were mostly ¼ weaker with NY, +10; the Gulf, +11; Dallas, +6 ¼; Tampa, 19 ¼; LA, +19 ¾

·       Ethanol RINs were again higher: 2016’s +4 ½ 41 ½ -46; 2017’s & 2018’s, both up 4 ¾ to 43 ½-48 ¼ and 44 ½ - 49 ¼

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread again worked higher, up $.0126 to+$.5286/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​;                        

• Choice boxed beef values firmed 83-cents on Thursday to $225.21 and are up 22-cents vs. a week ago
• Trade est. for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: Mar 1 On-Feed, 108.2%; Feb Placed, 104.4%; Feb Marketed 101.2%
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 91-cents on Thursday to $70.11 and is down $2.30 vs. last week  
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.60 on Thursday to $63.03.  April futures declined $1.25 and are $1.705 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather