HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Struggling: CH: down $.0025; SF: steady; WH: down $.0025; KWH: up $.0025
· MACRO. Tax bill euphoria sort of continues; Spanish separatists win in Catalonia, keeping alive the threat of secession; light news day ahead of Christmas. ASIA—Mostly firmer: Nikkei, +0.16%; Shanghai, -0.08%; Hang Seng, +0.72%. EUROPE: Weaker: DAX,-0.28%; FTSE, +0.07%; CAC, -0.46%. WALL STREET—Futures are a little higher—DOW, +14; S&P, +1.75; NAS, flat. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.073 @ 92.935; Gold: +1.40 @ $1,270; Feb crude: -$0.28 @ $58.08.
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T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms dot Argentina through Sat., producing scattered 0.25"-0.75" in most areas (except south); 5-7 days of dry weather follow. Some thunderstorms return next weekend & the following week, but heavy rain is not anticipated. Southern Brazil turns considerably wetter through Sun.-Mon. as a strong cool front triggers heavy thunderstorms, followed by additional thunderstorms after a few days off. Much of northern Brazil will be drier than normal over the next week
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CH, down $.0025 @ $3.51; CK, down $.0025 @ $3.5925. Fund buying was estimated at 3 K on Thursday
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SF, steady @ $9.4875; SH, steady @ $9.59. Funds: sold 4 SB, 3 SBM, 5 SBO. Board Crush: $1.02, 0; LY, $.69
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WH, down $.0025 @ $4.2675; WK, steady @ $4.39. The funds were credited with 4 K in purchases yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
·   Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. corn as of Dec. 14 were 624 mbu, which is down 19% from 773 mbu last year
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Consultant: Earliest planted corn in Argentina is either pollinating or already in the milk stage. Elevated temperatures have resulted in high rates of evapotranspiration, which has resulted in moisture stress for some of the crop
· T-storm Weather: After rainfall across Argentina ends on Sat., five to seven days of dry and seasonable weather follow. Another system is likely to pass within Dec. 29-Jan. 3, triggering scattered rain with 0.50”-1.50” most probable
· NWS Seasonal Drought Outlook shows drought to persist in sorghum areas of southern KS, OK & TX through March 31
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Dec. 14 were 503 mbu—down 21% from 635 mbu last year
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ATI Research: The USDA’s U.S. soybean export forecast of 2.225 bbu looks over-stated, despite recent aggressive Chinese buying. We would not be surprised to see USDA make forecast reductions of 50-75 mbu in months ahead
· Consultant: There will be more double-crop soybeans planted in Argentina this year due to more wheat acreage
· Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Dec. 14 were 219 mbu—down 6% from 232 mbu last year
· T-storm Weather: The central U.S. turns sharply colder from northwest to southeast through Sat., likely marking the onset of the coldest period of weather in at least two years. Winterkill is possible in central and northern wheat areas
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG18, -$.28 @ $58.08; EBG, -$0.29 @ $64.61; EBG-QCLG, -$0.01; RBG, -.0126; NGG, +.009; HOG, -.0065
· On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.26975, up $0.00975; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11; Gulf, +6; Dallas, +4 ½; Tampa, +20 ½; and LA, +25
· On Thu., ethanol RINs fell: 2016’s eased 2 ¼ to 63 ¼-67 ¼; 2017’s down 2 ¼ to 64-68; & 2018’s off 2 ¼ at 64-68
· The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread edged $.0023 higher to +$.45260/gallon in yesterday’s trade
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Choice boxed beef values gained 3-cents on Thursday to $198.12, but is still $2.92 lower compared to a week ago
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Trade estimates 11:00 am USDA Cattle on Feed: Dec. 1 On-Feed 106.7%; Nov. Placed 105.8%; Nov. Marketed 103.2%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 66-cents on Thursday to $76.24, and is 3-cents higher vs. last week
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Trade estimates 11:00 am USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs: All Hogs & Pigs, 102.0%; Breeding, 100.7%, Marketing, 102.1%
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather