HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Steady/Higher: CU, $.0000; SU, +$.0325; WU, +$.0650; KWU, +$.1225.
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MACRO: More of the same . . . on-going worries over U.S./China trade relations; weak Chinese manufacturing data. Asia—Much lower: Nikkei, -2.21%; Shanghai, -2.52%; Hang Seng, closed. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.57%; FTSE, -0.86%; CAC, -1.06%. WALL STREET: Futures are sharply lower: DOW, -154; S&P, -14.25; NAS,-47.00. EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.44 @ $72.02; Aug Gold: -$4.70 @ $1,250; Dec $ Index, +.186 @ 94.100. Dely: BO, 1,470; RR, 124; C, 912; HRW, 254; SB, 929, SRW,1
· T-storm Weather: U.S. Corn Belt temps avg. +6°F to +12°F from normal through Thu.-Fri. as moderately above-normal highs in the 90s coincide with much above-normal lows in the 70s, followed by two days of seasonableness within Fri.-Sun. Scattered thunderstorms affect the southeast third of the Corn Belt into today, followed by isolated thunderstorms each of the next five days in this region. Some organized thunderstorm clusters affect the northern third of the Corn Belt and Plains Mon.-Tue.
· CU, unch @ $3.5950; CZ, unch @ $3.7125. More fund liqidation with another 20 K sold as a result of Friday’s report
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SQ, up $.0325 @ $8.6675; SU, up $.0275 @ $8.72. Funds: Sold 3 SB, 0 SBM; bot 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.94, +$.07; LY: $.90
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WN, up $.0650 @ $5.0775; WZ, up $.0725 @ $5.24. The funds bought 10 K on Friday
CORN/SORGHUM
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December 2018 corn futures on June 29 closed at $3.71 ¼—down $0.42 ½ vs. the settlement price on May 31
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Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent condition at 75-77% compared to 77% last week and 68% last year
· T-storm Weather: Most likely scenario--temps avg. considerably above-normal through mid-month in/near Corn Belt, despite a 1 to 3-day cool-off to normal July 6-8. Some rain accompanies heat, but only near- or below-normal totals
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 56.0 mbu needed; 59.5 last week. Milo—4.7 needed; 0.0 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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November 2018 soybean futures on June 29 closed at $8.80—down $1.54 ¼ vs. the settlement price on May 31
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Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent condition at 71-73% compared to 73% last week and 64% last year
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 27.1 mbu needed; 18.9 last week
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CBT September 2018 wheat futures on June 29 closed at $5.01 ¼—down $0.41 ¾ vs. the settlement price on May 31
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.5 mbu needed; 13.0 last week
· T-storm Weather: Mainly dry near-term in drought-sticken wheat areas of Russia; i.e. Southern & Caucasus Districts
ENERGY
· Lower: CLU18, -$.42 @ $72.02; EBU, -$0.67 @ $78.56; EBU-QCLU, -$0.27; RBU, -.0235; NGU, -.023; HOU, -.0204
· On Friday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.425, up $0.0125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.135; Gulf, +$0.095; Dallas, +$0.085; Tampa, +$0.22; and LA, +$0.26
· Ethanol RINs weakened further on Friday: 2017’s fell 1 ¼ to 15-16; and 2018’s declined 7/8 to 23-24
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread gained $.0382 Friday, increasing to +$.7541/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Choice boxed beef values declined $1.28 on Friday to $211.96 and are $5.20 lower vs. last week
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Light to moderate cash cattle trade developed on Friday, with prices at $107 to $108—$1 to $2 higher than midweek
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 15-cents on Friday to $86.63 but is still up $1.90 vs. a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index was $0.63 lower on Fri. at $83.69. July futures gained $1.75 but are still $0.815 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather