HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Steady/firm:  CZ, steady; SX, steady; WZU, +$.0450; KWZ, +$.05
• MACRO:  Canada/U.S trade concerns & worries over developing markets’ outlook pressure bourses. ASIA: Lower: Nikkei, -0.51%; Shanghai, -1.68%; Hang Seng, -2.61%.  EUROPE:  Weaker:  DAX, -0.05%; FTSE, -0.41%; CAC, -1.35%.  WALL STREET: Futures are decidedly weaker: DOW, -120; S&P, -10.75; NAS, -34.00.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$1.01 @ $68.86; Dec Gold: +$0.60 @ $1,200; Dec $ Index, +0.145 @ 95.125.  DELY: SBM, 0; SBO, 830; C, 237; ETOH, 0; O, 9; SB, 463; HRW, 99; SRW, 223

·       T-storm Weather: The exact setup is complex, but generalized rainfall of 1.50" to 3.50" remains probable across the southeast two-thirds of the central U.S. over the next five days as a cool front, waves of energy, and remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon all converge on the Corn Belt.  Areas of field flooding result, especially in parts of IL, IA, MO, and WI.  Temperatures will continue to average slightly to moderately above normal over the next 10 to 14 days as Arctic air remains locked to the north

·      CZ, steady @ $3.6825; CH, down $.0025 @ $3.7950.  The funds opened the week buying 5 K          

• SX, steady @ $8.4425; SF, dn $.0075 @ $8.5625.  Funds: Even SB, bot 4 SBM, sold 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.50, +4, LY: $.89
• WZ, up $.0450 @ $5.36; WH, up $.05 @ $5.5650.  Heavy funding selling at 8 K, Russia export concerns ease       

  CORN/SORGHUM

·      U.S. corn crop is rated 67% Good/Excellent versus 68% last week but above 61% last year.  Dent is 75% vs. 58% last year and the 5-year average of 60%.  Mature is 22% vs. 11% for both last year and the 5-year average

·      ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 177.4 bpa versus August USDA projection of 178.4

·      U.S. sorghum crop is rated 52% Good/Excellent versus 53% last week and 63% last year

• T-storm Weather: A drier period for U.S. corn begins from west to east Sat.-Mon. as a new period of weather begins.  The new period is likely to be mild with little to no threat of an early frost or freeze, and some rain in northern areas

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      U.S. soybean crop is rated 66% Good/Excellent, unchanged versus last week but above 61% last year.  Soybeans dropping leaves pegged at 16% vs. 10% last year and the 5-year avg. of 9% 

·      ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 51.7 bpa vs. August USDA projection of 51.6

• T-storm Weather: 17% of U.S. soybean prod. received at least 8.00” of rain last 30 days, incl. 64% in IA, 49% in WI
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term
• T-storm Weather: In Australia, most winter wheat will be drier to much drier than normal over the next 10 to 14 days, despite light rainfall of 0.20” to 0.70” within drought-stricken areas of New South Wales and Queensland Thu. -Fri.

ENERGY

·      Lower: CLV18, -$1.01 @ $68.86; EBX, -$0.99 @ $77.20; EBX-QCLX, +$0.01; RBV, -0.0197; NGV, -.003; HOV, -.0193

·      On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.32375, up $0.025; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.08625; Gulf, +$0.09125; Dallas, +$0.02375; Tampa, +$0.14625; and LA, +$0.23125

·      Ethanol RINs were weaker on Tuesday: 2017’s fell 3/8 to 14 ¾-15; and 2018’s eased 1/8 to 20 ¾-21

·      The October RBOB/September ethanol spread shed $.1725 on Monday, and is down to $.6912/gal  

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &n​bsp;                      

• Choice boxed beef values were $1.13 higher on Tuesday at $210.82 but are still down $1.71 vs. last week  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $1.84 last week to $107.18/cwt but is $2.52 higher v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.55 on Tue. to $67.45 and is $3.56 higher vs. a week ago 
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.19 on Tuesday to $45.44.  October futures firmed $0.65 and are $5.635 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather