HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—something for everyone: CZ: down $.0075; SX: down $.0050; WZ: up $.0025; KWZ: steady

·       MACRO:  Mixed trading overseas following the tech sell-off and fresh threats from North Korea; White House brushes off war assertions. ASIA—Mostly firmer:  Nikkei,-0.33%; Shanghai, +0.07%; Hang Seng, +0.05%.  EUROPE: Mostly firmer:  DAX,+0.21%; FTSE, -0.01%; CAC, +0.07%.  WALL STREET—Futures are leaning a little higher—DOW, +5; S&P, -0.25; NAS, +10.75.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index: +.259 @ 92.700; Gold: -$4.00 @ $1,303; Oct crude:-$0.31 @ $52.21/bl. 

• T-storm Weather: Widespread rain ends in U.S. western Corn Belt over the next 24-36 hours, but focuses on central & southern Plains through midweek.  Little to no rain occurs to the east, but temps turn much cooler through Thu. in the Delta & southeast half of the Corn Belt.  Temps quickly turn much warmer from west to east this weekend & early next week, accompanied by some light rain in the Plains & western Corn Belt; mainly dry weather prevails with eastward extent through next week
• CZ, down $.0075 @ $3.53; CH, down $.01 @ $3.6550.  Fund buying on Monday estimated at 3 K
• SX, down $.0050 @ $9.7075; SF, down $.0025 @ $9.8150.  Funds:  bot 5 SB; 5 SBM; 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $.83, 0; LY: $.79
• WZ, up $.0025 @ $4.5425; WH, down $.0025 @ $4.7350.  Speculative buying was put at 4 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 61% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but well below 74% last year.  Corn mature is 51% vs. 70% last year and the 5-year avg. of 64%.  Corn harvest is 11% vs. 14% last year and the 5-year avg. of 17%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 167.9 bpa versus September USDA est. of 169.9

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 64% Good/Excellent versus 65% last week and 66% last year

• T-storm Weather: In South America, rain affects most corn over the next 10 days, resulting in widespread coverage of above-normal amounts. Upcoming rain will mark onset of the 17-18 rainy season in Center-West and Southeast Brazil

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 60% Good/Excellent vs. 59% last week and 73% last year.  Dropping leaves is 63% vs. 65% last year & the 5-year avg of 63%.  Soybean harvest is 10% vs. 9% last year but behind the 5-year avg. of 12%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. soybean crop is 48.3 bpa vs. September USDA est. of 49.9

• T-storm Weather: Although temperatures turn much cooler across U.S. soybean production areas over Wednesday-Sunday, a killing frost of freeze is not expected
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term
• U.S. winter wheat planting is 24% vs. 28% last year and the 5-year avg. of 28%

ENERGY

·       Easier: CLX17, -$0.31 @ $52.21; EBX, -$0.47 @ $58.55;EBX-QCLX, -$.22; RBX, -.0083; NGX, +.028; HOX, -.0162

·       A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago added ½; New York fell 1; Gulf firmed 5/8; Dallas eased ½; Tampa increased 1 ½; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.70 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs firmed posted modest declines on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s fell ¼ to 82 ¼-83 ½

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread posted another gainon Monday, +$.0406 to settle at +$.19500/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &n​bsp;         

• Choice boxed beef values soared $2.36 on Mon. to $193.96 (largest gain since June 5) and are up $1.34 v. last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $2.61 v. last week at $108.50/cwt, & is also $2.61 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 79-centson Monday to $73.05, but is $4.15 lower vs. a week ago

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $31.57/cwt vs. last week’s $33.97, last month’s $34.15 & last year’s $24.51

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather