HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND-slightly weaker: CK, Down $.01; SK, Down $.07; WK, down $.025; KWK, Down $.0675
· A weaker trend is evident in global equity markets on Monday ahead of policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. ASIA: The Nikkei closed down 0.8%; Shanghai eased 0.4%; while the Hang Seng was off 0.8%. EUROPE: Weaker at mid-day with the FTSE down 0.46% and the DAX off 0.53. U.S. PRE-MARKETS: Weaker with DOW futures, -23; S&P 500, -2; NAS, -5. EXTERNALS: June oil is down 39 cents @ $43.34; Gold is up $4.65 @ $1,233.35 & the $ Index is off 0.28 at 94.80
· T-storm Weather: A classic setup for multiple areas & rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms begins shortly & lasts for 10-14 days. Regarding timing, pockets of significant rain affect the northern third of the Corn Belt & Plains today, while most areas to the south remain dry & stay mild through Tue. Rain affects much of the central/southern Plains, Corn Belt & Delta Wed.-Thur. The largest system passes of April 29-May 4 when heavy rain affects much of the central/southern Plains, Corn Belt & Delta; 2.00”-5.00” are forecast through May 7. Wettest across the western half of Corn Belt & eastern half of central & southern Plains
· CK, Down $.01 @ $3.7075; CN, Down $.0075 @ $3.7475. Fund selling of 30 K seen on Friday
· SK, Down $.07 @ $9.80; SN, Down $.065 @ $9.8975. Fund activity: Sold 25 K SB; 15 K SBM and 5 K SBO
· WK, Down $.025 @ $4.645; WN, Down $.02 @ $4.72. The funds sold 20 K Friday
CORN/SORGHUM      
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 41.5 needed; 42.9 last week. Milo—3.2 needed; 7.6 last week
· USDA Crop Progress report (release at 3:00 PM CDT) could show U.S. corn planting as of April 24 at 24-26% vs. approx. 16% last year and the 5-year average of approx. 16%
· T-storm Weather: A strong cool front sweeps across southern 33% of Brazil’s winter corn belt today-Tue. producing 1.00”-2.00” of rain; drier further north. Unusually cool weather follows after the front passes & last for 5-7 days
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 9,088 contracts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 8.0 needed; 9.4 last week
· T-storm Weather: At least 10 days of dry weather is forecast for Argentina soybeans along with unusually cool temps
· USDA Crop Progress report (release at 3:00 PM CDT) could show U.S. soybean planting as of April 24 at 8-10% vs. approx. 2% last year and the 5-year average of approx. 3%
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 28,399 contracts
· T-storm Weather: U.S. HRW wheat gets at least 2.00” rain through May 7--may affect quality; less rain in spring wheat
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 21.3 needed; 16.8 last week
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLM16, -$0.39, $43.34; EBM, -$.43; EBM-CLM, +$1.39, +$0.01; RBM, -$.0127; NGM, -0.011; HOM, -$.0059
· A notably weaker tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago off 3 5/8; New York eased 2 5/8; Gulf and Tampa slid 3; Dallas down 3 ¾; and LA was 4 ½ lower at $1.68 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down ¾ to 74 ½-75 ½; 2015’s off ¼ to 74 ½-75 ½; and 2016’s eased 1/8 to 74-75 ¼
· The May RBOB/May Ethanol inverse is up $.0017 at +$.00126/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
·   Choice boxed beef values were 41- cents lower on Friday, and at $220.31 are down $4.82 compared to a week ago
· Cattle on Feed: Apr 1 on feed, 100.5% (101.0% avg est); Mar place, 104.6% (107.4%); Mar Marketed, 107.1% (107.8%)
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 77-cents lower Fri. at $79.15, but is still 54-cents higher vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.32 higher Fri. at $67.68. May futures fell $1.325 but are still $8.02 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com