HIGHLIGHTS
-
MARKET TREND—Slightly lower: CZ: down $.0075; SX: down $.0075; WZ: down $.0225; KWZ: down $.0225.
· MACRO: DOW breaks above 23 K yesterday, closes slightly below that; major earnings out today along with release of the Fed’s Beige Book on present economic conditions. ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +0.13%; Shanghai, +0.28%; Hang Seng, +0.05%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.54%; FTSE, +0.31%; CAC, +0.51%. WALL STREET—Futures point to a positive opening—DOW, +49; S&P, +2.25; NAS,+3.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.190 @ 93.540; Gold: -$3.70 @ $1,281; Dec crude:+$0.22 @ $52.33/bl.
-
Weather: Across the Western U.S. Corn Belt, dry weather is forecast through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occur on Sat., with light to moderate rain amounts although some locally heavier totals are expected. Temperatures forecast to be above to much above normal through Sat. Dry weather is forecast for the Eastern Corn Belt through Friday. A few light showers possible on Sat., followed by light to moderate rain on Sun. Temperatures above to much above normal through Sun.
-
CZ, down $.0075 @ $3.4925; CH, down $.0075 @ $3.63. The funds liquidated 2 K in yesterday’s trading session
-
SX, down $.0075 @ $9.84; SF, down $.0050 @ $9.9475. Funds: Sold 3 SB; 3 SBM & 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.92, 0; LY: $.81
-
WZ, down $.0225 @ $4.3250; WH, down $.0225 @ $4.5150 The funds followed up Monday’s 2 K sales with 1 K yesterday
     
CORN/SORGHUM
-
Weather: Latest National Weather Service 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 23-27 calling for below-normal precip west of the Mississippi River, with normal to above normal rain to the east. Most areas to see normal temperatures
-
ATI Research: Our current bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is in the mid-20 mbu per week
· Consultant: Heavy rain across parts of southern Brazil could result in some switching of full-season corn to soybeans
· Ethanol margins: $0.21 per gallon—unchanged last week but well below $0.49 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
· Through Oct. 17, the 2017 crop insurance harvest price for December 2017 corn futures has averaged $3.4965
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Active U.S. soybean harvest is expected this week. The 5-year average increase in harvest from Oct. 15-22 is 13%, with the largest gain since 2009 noted in 2013 (16%)
-
ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is in the 80-90 mbu per week range
-
Through Oct. 17, the 2017 crop insurance harvest price for November 2017 soybean futures has averaged $9.7310
· Weather: Light to moderate rain favors wheat production areas of southern New South Wales, Australia on Thursday
-
ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat planting progress from Oct. 15-22 may be well above the 5-year avg. increase of 9%
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ17, +0.22 @ $52.32; EBZ, +$0.49 @ $58.37; EBZ-QCLZ, +$0.27; RBZ, +.01; NGZ, -.045; HOZ, +.0056
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.2 (-7.1); Gasoline, +0.6 (+1.9); Distillates, -1.5 (+1.6)
· A mixed trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago and Gulf up ¾; New York increased 1 ½; Tampa steady; Dallas steady; but LA was a penny lower at $1.55 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were firmer on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased 1 ½ to 78 ½-80
· The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread added another $.0042, closing at +$.20210/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef values fell $1.15 on Tuesday to $197.66, but are still up 26-cents compared to last week
-
Pre-report estimates for Friday’s Cattle on Feed: Oct. 1 On-Feed 104.6%; Sep. Placed 107.3%; Sep. Marketed 102.7%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 48-cents on Tue. to $73.88, but is still $1.12 higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.76 on Tue. to $61.00. December futures down $1.525 but are $1.175 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN