HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly weaker: CZ, unch; SF, -$.0375; WZ, down $.0025; KWZ, -$.01 
• MACRO: Global stocks hoping to bounce back . . . is the recent sell-off the end of the bull market?  Or, merely a temporary setback?  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, -0.35%; Shanghai, +0.21%; Hang Seng, +0.51%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.53%; FTSE, +0.62%; CAC, +0.29%.  WALL STREET: Futures look higher: DOW, +113; S&P, +14.00; NAS, +50.25. EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$0.88 @ $54.31; Dec Gold: +$3.50 @ $1,225;Dec $ Index, -0.286 @ 96.430.

·       Weather: In the U.S., mostly dry weather is forecast for the western Corn Belt through Thursday.  Light rain is projected for Friday followed by mixed precip on Saturday.  Temps are forecast to be variable today & above to much above normal over Thursday-Saturday.  In the eastern Corn Belt, dry weather is forecast through Thursday followed by light to locally moderate rain later Friday & early Saturday.  Temps are forecast to be near to below normal through Thursday, & above normal Friday-Saturday

·       CZ, unch @ $3.6125; CH, unchanged @ $3.7225.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday  

• SF, down $.0375 @ $8.7725; SH, down $.0350 @ $8.91.  Funds: bought 4 K SB; 3 K SBM; 0 SBO. Board Crush: $1.02, -3; LY: $.92 
• WZ, down $.0025 @ $5.0025; WH, down $.01 @ $5.0750.  The funds were even in Tuesday’s trading       

 CORN/SORGHUM

• U.S. corn exports through mid-November were up 80% v. last year but very near the pace seen in 2016

·       Consultant: The Argentina corn crop estimate was steady this week at 41.0 MMT vs. 32.0 last year.  Recent rains have helped to recharge soil moisture especially in Cordoba, which could be helpful for corn later in the growing season

·       USDA pegging 2018 Ukraine corn crop at 33.5 MMT—up 39% v. 2017.  However, some have crop closer to 35.0 MMT

·       Ethanol margins: $0.05 per gallon—up vs. -$0.01 last week but well below $0.29in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• U.S. soybean exports through mid-November were down 43% v. last year & the lowest for this time of year since 2009

·       Consultant: The early soybean harvest in Brazil should start within approx. 30 days, or before Christmas, which would be a record early start.  First exports of new crop beans might start by mid-January, which would also be record early

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 15-20 mbu per week 

·       Consultant: Some areas of central Argentina last week received 8-12 inches of rain resulting in localized flooding, hail damage & wind damage.  Preliminary estimate is 1-2 MMT of potential wheat production was lost due to the storms

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLF19, +0.88 @ $54.31; EBF,+$1.04 @ $63.57; EBF-QCLF, +$0.17;RBF, +.0120; NGF, +.0167; HOF, +.0154

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.9 (-1.5); Gasoline, -0.2 (+0.7); Distillates, -2.8 (-1.8).  Estimates for ethanol prod and inventories were unavailable from the wire services.  LW: 1.067 mbpd & 23.514

·       Chicago ethanol shed ¾’s to $1.2350; basis values were mixed: New York, +.01 @ $.1250; Gulf, +.0025 @ $.1025; Dallas, +.0025 @ $.1025; Tampa, +.0150 @ $.2350; and LA, -.0175 @ $.1425    

·       Ethanol RINs firmed: 2017’s, +1 3/8’s @ 8-9; 2018’s, +3/8’s @ 9-10; 2019’s, +3/8’s @ 13-13 ¾                      

​ ·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread narrowed sharply, up $.0830 to+$.24590 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                ​;                      

• Choice boxed beef was 70-cents higher on Tuesday at $214.09 and is up a penny compared to last week
• Estimates for 11:00 am USDA Cattle on Feed: Nov. 1 on feed, 104.3%; Placed in Oct, 98.8%; Marketed in Oct, 104.2%
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout plummeted $3.08 on Tuesday to $64.15 and is down $4.95 vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.28 on Tue. to $58.23.  December futures fell $2.05 but are $0.745 above the index         

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN