HIGHLIGHTS
-
MARKET TREND—Mostly weaker: CN, -$.01; SN, +$.0075; WN, -$.0225; KWN, -$.04
-
MACRO: To impose investment restrictions on China/other countries or not, that is the question; and, will China devalue the Yen? Asia—Mostly Lower: Nikkei, +0.02%; Shanghai, -0.51%; Hang Seng, -0.28%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.28; FTSE,+0.55%; CAC, +.044%. WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -25; S&P, -2.75; NAS,-0.25. EXTERNALS: Aug crude: -$0.23 @ $67.85; Aug Gold: -$10.60 @ $1,258; Dec $ Index, +.336 @ 93.840
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms focus on / near the Corn Belt through Tue.-Wed. as the last in the series of upper-level systems exit. Thereafter, temps average warmer to much-warmer than normal for most corn and soybeans going forward as areas of upper-level high pressure ebb and flow; the first heat wave focuses on the Corn Belt over June 28 - July 1 as highs reach the mid-90s and / or lows hold in the mid-70s, but leaves the northern Plains seasonable to cool this weekend
· CN, dn $.01 @ $3.4950; CU, dn $.01 @ $3.5850. The funds were big sellers on Monday, estimated at 20 K
-
SN, up $.0075 @ $8.7525; SQ, up $.0075 @ $8.8075. Funds: sold 15 SB, 8 SBM; 5 SBO. Board Crush: $1.76, +$.03; LY: $.87
-
WN, dn $.02 @ $4.7575; WU, dn $.0175 @ $4.89. The funds began the week selling 10 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· ; U.S. corn crop is rated 77% Good/Excellent versus 78% last week and 67% last year. Warmer-than-normal temps continue to accelerate crop development: silking is pegged at 5% compared to 4% last year and the 5-year avg. of 3%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 178.5 bpa versus June USDA projection of 174.0
-
T-storm Weather: Brief cooling possible early next week, but heat quickly re-generatesJuly 3-4 across Plains & at least western half of Corn Belt. Rain will occur, especially in northern areas of Corn Belt & Plains, but less-so to southeast
· June 29 USDA reports: Trade pegs U.S. corn acreage at 88.35 mil (88.03 in March); June 1 corn stocks est. 5.276 bbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean crop rated 73% Good/Excellent, unch v. last week (66% last year). Blooming at 12% vs. 5-year avg. of 5%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 49.8 bpa versus June USDA projection of 48.5
· June 29 USDA reports: Trade pegs U.S. soybean acres at 89.68 mil (88.98 in March); June 1 bean stocks est. 1.204 bbu
-
ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat crop est. dn 5 mbu to 1.166 bbu; harvest at 41% (33% avg). HRS est. dn 2 mbu to 559
-
June 29 USDA reports: Trade pegs U.S. wheat acres at 47.15 mil (47.34 in March); June 1 wheat stocks est. 1.101 bbu
-
T-storm Weather: There is historical precedent for below-trend wheat yields in Australia when La Niña diminishes in a similar manner to that expected for this year
ENERGY
· Higher: CLQ18, -$.24 @ $67.55; EBQ, +$0.05 @ $74.78; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.29; RBQ, +.0054; NGQ, +.003; HOQ, +.0015
· On Monday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.38625, down $0.01875; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.13125; Gulf, +$0.08875; Dallas, +$0.11625; Tampa, +$0.24625; and LA, +$0.26375
· Ethanol RINs were firmer on Monday: 2017’s up 1 ½ to 24-25; and 2018’s increased 1 ½ to 29-30
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread was little changed Monday, up $.0004 to+$.6565/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef values was 53-cents higher on Monday at $217.69 but is still $3.02 lower vs. last week
-
5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $2.54 v. last week to $108.74/cwt and is $12.76 lower v. last year
-
USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.10 on Monday to $85.83 and is $2.53 higher vs. a week ago
-
Current nearby board hog crush value is $44.13/cwt vs. last week’s $46.79, last month’s $40.74 & last year’s $49.00
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather