HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly Weaker: CK, down $.0175; SK, down $.0450; WK, down $.0175; KWK, up $.0150
· MACRO—Trump crafting a tax plan to lower corporate rates to 15%. ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +1.08%; Shanghai, +0.19%; Hang Seng, +1.31%--French election follow-through, weaker yen. EUROPE—mostly higher: DAX, -0.04%; FTSE, +0.27%; CAC, +0.24%. Wall STREET-Futures are again higher: DOW, +55; S&P, +3.50; NAS, +9.75. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.113 @ 98.71; April Gold, -$4.70 @ $1,271; May Crude, +$0.17 @ $49.40
· T-storm Weather: A major system & its smaller-scale waves of energy move across central U.S. through May 1. Widespread coverage of heavy rain results (except northern Plains where cool to cold/dry weather prevail); generalized totals of 2.25"-4.50" across Corn Belt, 1.75"-3.50" in Delta, & 1.00"-3.00" in central/southern Plains. Rain begins today in northwest Corn Belt, Wednesday further into Corn Belt, &Thursday into the eastern Corn Belt, followed by the main rain events within Friday-Monday
· Corn: CK down $.0175 @ $3.5750; CN down $.0175 @ $3.6375. The funds opened the week buying 2 K
· SB: down $.0450 @ $9.5675; SN down $.05 @ $9.6675. Funds: Bot 52 SB, 5 SBM & sold 6 SBO. Board Crush: $.83, +21; LY; $.73
· Wheat: WK down $.0175 @ $4.0075; WN down $.0150 @ $4.1775. Fund selling totaled 3 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 23 at 17% vs. 28% last year and the 5-year average of 18%
· T-storm Weather: A cooler air mass spreads further east Sun.-Mon., breaking storminess. That said, the upper-level pattern remains similar next week, & a warmer period overMay 4-8 sets the stage for another significant rain or two
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is increased 2.0 MMT this week to 92.0 MMT. Mato Grosso is #1 safrinha(double crop) state & in central areas—where concentration of safrinha is highest—weather has been very favorable
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export forecast model decreased from 55.0 mbu per week last week to 52.8. This compares to an avg. of 54.0 for the past month; is 7 mbu higher than last year; and 19.7 mil above the 5-year avg.
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of April 23 at 6% vs. 3% last year and the 5-year average of 3%
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. increased 1.0 MMT to 110.0 MMT with a neutral to higher bias. Harvest at 93%
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export forecast declined from 17.4 mbu per week to 13.0. This is 14 mbu below the prior 4-week avg. but up 4.0 to 4.5 mbu per week vs. both last year and the seasonal average
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat export forecast is 20-25 mbu/week v. 14.0 last year & latest 4-week avg. of 23.2
· ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent unch at 54%; winter wheat model pegs ‘17 crop @ 1.287 bbu; +4 mbu v. last week
ENERGY
· Firm: CLM17, +$0.17 @ $49.40; EBM, +.18 @ $51.78;EBM-QCLM, .00; RBM,-$.0011; NGM, +$0.002; HOM, +$.0046
· Cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly weaker on Monday: Chicago, New York and Gulf off ½; Dallas and Tampa unchanged; and LA was steady at $1.80 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs continue to slide on Monday: 2016’s declined 1 ¾ to 46 ½-49; and 2017’s fell 1 ¾ to 46 ½-49
· The May RBOB/May ethanol spread continues to narrow, losing $.0181 & settling at +$.0024/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values were $1.51 higher on Mondayat $218.67, and are up $4.54 compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $3.59 v. last week at $131.60/cwt, and is $5.15 higher v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout fell $1.04 on Monday to $73.94, and is 28-cents lower vs. last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $39.34/cwt vs. last week’s $42.41, last month’s $44.33 & last year’s $48.43
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather