HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly weaker:  CH, -$.02; SF, +$.0125; WH, -$.0375; KWH, -$.0450
• MACRO:  Tweets aside, euphoria passes as doubts surface about the ability of China & the U.S. to resolve trade differences.  Asia: Mostly firmer--Nikkei, -2.39%; Shanghai, +0.42%; Hang Seng, +0.29%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.59%; FTSE, -0.51%; CAC, -0.48%.  WALL STREET: Lower: DOW, -98; S&P, -7.25; NAS, -28.00.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$1.15 @ $54.10; Dec Gold: +$4.70 @ $1,239; Dec $ Index, -.624 @ 96.345.  Dely: SBM, 1; SBO, 1,078; C, 2; ETOH, 11; HRW, 52; O, 6

·       T-storm Weather: In South America, dry and cool weather dominate Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 7 to 10 days, followed by a seasonably-warmer and stormier period.  Northern areas of Brazil experience thunderstorms on many of the next 7 to 10 days, followed by a continuation of thunderstorms once the milder pattern unfolds.  Upcoming weather is likely favorable – especially since limited totals until next week aids late-crop corn and soybean planting in Argentina

·       CH, dn $.02 @ $3.80; CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.8750.  Fund buying on Monday, Post-G20, amounted to 10 K      

• SF, up $.0125 @ $9.07; SH, up $.0150 @ $9.1925.  Funds: Bot 10 K SB, 6 K SBM and 6K SBO. Board Crush: $1.00, +3; LY: $1.18 
• WH, dn $.0375 @ $5.1775; WK, dn $.04 @ $5.2350.  The funds bought 3 K to begin the week            

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: Dryness concerns are low in Brazil with 79% of its first-crop corn production having been near or wetter than normal over the last 30 days

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate for 2018/19 is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT vs. 81.0 MMT last year and 98.5 MMT two years ago.  Full-season corn production is est. at 28.0 MMT and safrinha (double crop) at 68.0

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 18/19 U.S. corn is 1.994 bbu vs. November USDA est. of 1.736 bbu

·       ATI Research: Monday’s USDA Grain Crushings report indicated corn ground for ethanol in October was 8 mbu below October, 2017.  Sep-Oct grind of 908 mbu is ~1% below 2017, while the USDA forecast is for a 0.8% annual increase

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. for 2018/19 is unch at 122.0 MMT vs. 119.5 MMT last year & 114.6 MMT 2 years ago.  Some believe 10-15% of Brazil’s soybeans will be harvested by the end of January—double the average amount

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 18/19 U.S. soybeans is 1.032 bbu vs. November USDA est. of 0.955 bbu

• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 81% of soybean production was near to wetter than normal over the last 30 days
• ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 18/19 carryout projected at 162 mbu compared to 205 last year

·       T-storm Weather: 100% of U.S. HRW & SRW wheat production were near to wetter than normal over the last 90 days

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLF19, +1.15 @ $55.10; EBG,+$1.56 @ $63.25; EBG-QCLG, +$0.40; RBF, +.0367; NGF, +.092; HOF, +.0511

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.02875 Monday to $1.22125; basis values were mostly weaker: New York, unch @ $.1675; Gulf, -.00875 @ $.12875; Dallas, -.00875 @ $.1137; Tampa, -.01875 @ $.21375; and LA, -.01375 @ $.18375    

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s, -1 ¼ @ 10 ½-11; 2018’s, +1/4 @ 12 ½-13; 2019’s, unch @ 15 ½-16 ½                         

·       The Jan RBOB/Dec ethanol spread shed narrowed $.0189 yesterday, to +$.20140/gal 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    &nbs​p; 

• Choice boxed beef increased 47-cents on Monday to $213.08 but is still $1.37 compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.71 v. last week at $117.10/cwt, but is $3.48 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.08 on Monday to $68.60 and is $2.14 higher vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $36.38/cwt vs. last week’s $37.13, last month’s $33.34 & last year’s $40.53

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather

 

HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly weaker:  CH, -$.02; SF, +$.0125; WH, -$.0375; KWH, -$.0450
• MACRO:  Tweets aside, euphoria passes as doubts surface about the ability of China & the U.S. to resolve trade differences.  Asia: Mostly firmer--Nikkei, -2.39%; Shanghai, +0.42%; Hang Seng, +0.29%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.59%; FTSE, -0.51%; CAC, -0.48%.  WALL STREET: Lower: DOW, -98; S&P, -7.25; NAS, -28.00.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$1.15 @ $54.10; Dec Gold: +$4.70 @ $1,239; Dec $ Index, -.624 @ 96.345.  Dely: SBM, 1; SBO, 1,078; C, 2; ETOH, 11; HRW, 52; O, 6

·       T-storm Weather: In South America, dry and cool weather dominate Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 7 to 10 days, followed by a seasonably-warmer and stormier period.  Northern areas of Brazil experience thunderstorms on many of the next 7 to 10 days, followed by a continuation of thunderstorms once the milder pattern unfolds.  Upcoming weather is likely favorable – especially since limited totals until next week aids late-crop corn and soybean planting in Argentina

·       CH, dn $.02 @ $3.80; CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.8750.  Fund buying on Monday, Post-G20, amounted to 10 K      

• SF, up $.0125 @ $9.07; SH, up $.0150 @ $9.1925.  Funds: Bot 10 K SB, 6 K SBM and 6K SBO. Board Crush: $1.00, +3; LY: $1.18 
• WH, dn $.0375 @ $5.1775; WK, dn $.04 @ $5.2350.  The funds bought 3 K to begin the week            

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: Dryness concerns are low in Brazil with 79% of its first-crop corn production having been near or wetter than normal over the last 30 days

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate for 2018/19 is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT vs. 81.0 MMT last year and 98.5 MMT two years ago.  Full-season corn production is est. at 28.0 MMT and safrinha (double crop) at 68.0

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 18/19 U.S. corn is 1.994 bbu vs. November USDA est. of 1.736 bbu

·       ATI Research: Monday’s USDA Grain Crushings report indicated corn ground for ethanol in October was 8 mbu below October, 2017.  Sep-Oct grind of 908 mbu is ~1% below 2017, while the USDA forecast is for a 0.8% annual increase

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. for 2018/19 is unch at 122.0 MMT vs. 119.5 MMT last year & 114.6 MMT 2 years ago.  Some believe 10-15% of Brazil’s soybeans will be harvested by the end of January—double the average amount

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 18/19 U.S. soybeans is 1.032 bbu vs. November USDA est. of 0.955 bbu

• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 81% of soybean production was near to wetter than normal over the last 30 days
• ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 18/19 carryout projected at 162 mbu compared to 205 last year

·       T-storm Weather: 100% of U.S. HRW & SRW wheat production were near to wetter than normal over the last 90 days

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLF19, +1.15 @ $55.10; EBG,+$1.56 @ $63.25; EBG-QCLG, +$0.40; RBF, +.0367; NGF, +.092; HOF, +.0511

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.02875 Monday to $1.22125; basis values were mostly weaker: New York, unch @ $.1675; Gulf, -.00875 @ $.12875; Dallas, -.00875 @ $.1137; Tampa, -.01875 @ $.21375; and LA, -.01375 @ $.18375    

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s, -1 ¼ @ 10 ½-11; 2018’s, +1/4 @ 12 ½-13; 2019’s, unch @ 15 ½-16 ½                         

·       The Jan RBOB/Dec ethanol spread shed narrowed $.0189 yesterday, to +$.20140/gal 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &nbs​p;     

• Choice boxed beef increased 47-cents on Monday to $213.08 but is still $1.37 compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.71 v. last week at $117.10/cwt, but is $3.48 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.08 on Monday to $68.60 and is $2.14 higher vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $36.38/cwt vs. last week’s $37.13, last month’s $33.34 & last year’s $40.53

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather