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MARKET TREND Mostly Weaker CH, down 1, SF, unchanged, WH down 2

December 29, 2017 08:39 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly Weaker: CH, down $.0125; SF, up $.0075; WH, down $.01; KWH, down $.0050

·      MACRO.  Last trading day of 2017; light volume expected with major global markets slightly mixed.  ASIA—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, -0.08%; Shanghai, +0.35%; Hang Seng,+0.190%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker: DAX,-0.31%; FTSE, +0.34%; CAC, -0.10%.  WALL STREET—Futures point to a firmer start—DOW, +61 S&P, +9.00; NAS, +18.00EXTERNALS: $ Index-.270- @ 92.030; Gold+$1.60 @ $1,296; Feb crude: +$0.20 @ $60.04.  Deliveries:  SBM, 300; SBO, 271; SB, 20; RR, 941 

  • T-storm Weather: Argentina will likely experience ½ to 1” rain amounts Central & North over the weekend.  The Southern growing regions will see lighter than normal rains until 10-14 days out when better organized amounts develop.  Brazil should receive widespread coverage of near-normal amounts during the next 10-14 days.  Artic air keeps the plains cold with abnormally dry conditions persisting in the Southern/Central Plains
  • CH, down $.0125 @ $3.5075; CK, down $.01 @ $3.5925.  The funds sold 6 K yesterday               
  • SF, up $.0075 @ $9.4650; SH, up $.0025 @ $9.57.  Funds: Sold 6 SB, 4 SBM, 6 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.98, -2; LY, $.69 
  • WH, down $.01 @ $4.2675; WK, down $.0125 @ $4.3950.  The funds were even on Thursday  

      CORN/SORGHUM

·      USDA Corn Export Sales released 7:30 am CST:  61.3 LW; 25.8 needed; 24-43 expected

·      USDA Milo Sales:  17.2 LW; 2.8/week needed; 3-5 estimated

·      Ethanol output in the week ending 12/22 averaged 1.09 mpb, up 13 K bpd from LW and an increase of 6.0% vs LY.  Weekly production data suggests a 3.4% YTD increase with the USDA forecasting a 2.1% increase in corn grind

·      Since the release of the November WASDE, CH18 has closed within a 11 ¾ cent trading range:  $3.47-$3.58 ¾

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Soybean Export Sales: 64.0 LW: 21.5/week needed; 29-55 estimated

·      Product Export  Sales:  SBM: 184 K LW; 131/week needed; 100-300 estimated; SBO: 24.2 K MT LW;  14.6/week needed; 5-25 K MT estimated

·      Wheat Export Sales:  29.3 LW; 11.7/week needed; 9-20 estimated

·      Rosario disruption?  Details are really incomplete but in the next 30 days, Argentina “typically”  exports less than 5 mbu of soybeans; 40-45 mbu of corn and over 2 million metric tonnes of SBM.  U.S. crushers could benefit the most if the delay is significant?

·      Thursday’s SF18 close of $9.45 ¾ marks the weakest close of the contract since August 30th of $9.42 ¾

ENERGY

·      Higher: CLG18+$.20 @ $60,04; EBH, +$0.24 @ $66.40; EBH-QCLH+$0.05; RBG,-.0015; NGG, +.033; HOG, +.0042

·      EIA Petroleum Report (est): crude, -3.7 (-6.0); gasoline, +0.6 (+3.1); distillates, +1.1 (-0.58)

·      Chicago was a ½ cent higher to $1.2875/gallon. Basis to Chicago were all firmer—New York, +13 ¼; Gulf, +8 ½; Dallas, +7 ¾; Tampa, at +23 ¼ and LA, +25 ¼, were all ½ to 2 ½ firmer 

·      Ethanol RINs were higher: 2016’s were 67 to 70; 2017’s and 2018’s were both 68-70 ½; up 2 ¾ and 2 5/8, respectively 

·      The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread shed $.0095 to +$.48660/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &nbs​p;                      <​/p>

  • Choice boxed beef values gained 68-cents on Thursday and are $4.19 higher compared to last week
  • Forecasts for bitter cold temperatures to continue into early next year will likely impact feedyard cattle performance
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value Increased $1.12 on Thursday to $77.05 and is $1.47 higher vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.01 on Thu. to $61.58.  February futures gained $0.525 and are $9.97 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

             



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