HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mostly Lower: CU, down $.0050; SQ, up $.01; WU, down $.0125; KWU, down $.0150
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MACRO: Trade war on; market to assess if the economy added 195 K June workers & jobless holding steady at 3.8% Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +1.12%; Shanghai, +0.46%;Hang Seng, +0.47%. EUROPE: Trying to be higher: DAX, +0.03%; FTSE, -0.12%; CAC, +0.02%. WALL STREET: U.S. futures are weaker: DOW, -52; S&P, -3.00; NAS, -9.75. EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.11 @ $70.52; Aug Gold: -$4.00 @ $1,255; Dec $ Index, -.173 @ 93.625. Dely: BO, 921; RR, 0; C, 259; ETOH, 48; HRW, 43; O, 1; SB, 437, SRW, 1
· T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure floats within the U.S. over the next two weeks, producing heat waves in varying areas at varying times. Most areas will be at least slightly to moderately warmer than normal over next 10-14 days (especially with westward extent). Rain coverage & amounts will be much lower than previously as lower humidities & weaker dynamics limit thunderstorms; most to occur in 1-2 weeks across southeast half of central U.S. when a stronger cool front or two pass
· CU, down $.0050 @ $3.5175; CZ, down $.0025 @ $3.6425. Fund buying was estimated at 2 K yesterday
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SQ, up $.0150 @ $8.4075; SU, up $.0150 @ $8.4650. Funds: Sold 5 SB, 0 SBM; 2 SBO. Board Crush: $1.93, +$.07; LY: $.85
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WU, down $.0125 @ $5.0425; WZ, down $.02 @ $5.1775. The funds were again buyers of 6 K on Thursday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 20-31 mbu for 17/18 corn
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T-storm Weather: It remains plausible for a seasonable to slightly-cool period to begin in 10 to 14 days across primary U.S. corn production areas, but many uncertainties exist that will not be resolved until next week
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Ethanol grind: Total of 1,067,000 barrels/day for week end June 29—dn 5 thou v. prior week but up 5.2% v. last year
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Consultant: Recent heavy rains resulted in ponding and saturated conditions that could result in some localized problems for corn, especially in central and northern IA, southern MN, eastern SD and northeastern NE
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 7-18 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; soymeal, 50-200 K MT; soyoil, 4-30 K MT
· T-storm Weather: The most likely scenario over the next two weeks across soybean production areas of the central U.S. is for temps to average moderately warmer than normal by 4°F to 8°F. Most areas will also be drier than normal
· MGE Sep. 2018 wheat futures on Thursday closed at $5.47 ½; one year ago, MGE Sep. 2017 futures settled at $7.69
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 18/19 all wheat
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T-storm Weather: Drought continues over the next 7-10 days across winter wheat areas of northern Europe, most notably Denmark, Germany, the U.K. and at least the northern half of Poland
ENERGY
· Lower: CLU18, -$.11 @ $70.52; EBU, -$0.53 @ $76.86; EBU-QCLU, -$0.43; RBU, -.0145; NGU, -.004; HOU, -.0073
· On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were mostly higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.41875, up $0.0075; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.15625; Gulf, +$0.09125; Dallas, +$0.11625; Tampa, +$0.25125; and LA, +$0.28625
· Ethanol RINs were notably firmer on Thursday: 2017’s increased 2 ½ to 14-20 and 2018’s gained 3 ½ to 22-28
· The August RBOB/July ethanol spread narrowed $.0083 yesterday, closingat +$.7063/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef values declined $1.83 on Thursday to $208.43 and are $4.81 lower compared to last week
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Since posting a calendar year 2018 high of $232.68 on May 17, choice boxed beef has fallen $24.25 (10.4%)
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 88-cents on Thu. to $84.94 but is still down $1.84 vs. a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.27 on Thu. to $82.24. July futures fell $0.425 but are still $1.06 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather