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MARKET TREND Mostly Lower CN, Down 2, SN, Up 3, WN, Down 5

May 14, 2018 07:27 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:23 AM (2 hours ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly Lower: CN, -$.01; SN, -$.0375; WN, -$.0475; KWK, -$.0350. 
  • MACRO:  White House pledges to help PRC firm get back in business, after U.S. trade ban hammers company.  Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +0.47%; Shanghai, +0.34%;Hang Seng, +1.35%.  EUROPE: Weaker: DAX, -0.19%; FTSE, -0.07%; CAC, -0.18%WALL STREET: Futures are up a fair amount: DOW, +93; S&P, +6.25; NAS, +22.75EXTERNALS: June crude: -$0.17@ $70.53; Aug Gold: -$0.70 @ $1,326; $ Index-.216@ 91.305

·       T-storm Weather: Coolness breaks today in the north as approaching systems push mild and muggy air northward, sending maximums to the 70s-80s (and keeping minimums in the 50s-60s) for at least several days.  Several thunderstorm clusters form along the advancing edge of warmth into Tuesday, producing 1.00” to 2.00” from northeast KS/southeast NE and points east through much of IA, northern IL, southern WI and wettest areas of IN-MI-OH (essentially along the I-80 corridor)

·       CN, dn $.01 @ $3.9550; CU, dn $.0125 @ $4.0375.  Heavy fund selling on Friday, estimated at 15 K                    

  • SN, up $.0375 @ $10.07; SQ, up $.0325 @ $10.1050. Funds: Sold 15 SB, 8 SBM & bot 3 SBO. Board crush:  $1.74, +3; LY: $.87
  • WN, dn $.0475 @ $4.94; WU, dn $.0450 @ $5.1125.  The funds sold 6 K to close out the week                              

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ​ ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting increases approx. 19% from May 6-13 to 63%.  There are mixed ideas on last week’s progress with some believing it could reach 55-60% in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report
  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 0.50" to 1.00" of rain affects southern ~30% of second-crop (safrinha) corn Tue.-Wed., while other areas stay dry.  Another front produces 1.00” to 2.00” across the southwest ~70% of corn Fri.-Sat. 
  • Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 54.0 mbu needed; 75.4 last week.  Milo—3.8 needed; 2.8 last week

·       December 2018 corn futures on Friday closed at $4.14 ½ vs. $3.88 ¾ for December 2017 corn last year.  December 2017 corn last year subsequently reached a peak of $4.17 ¼ on July 11 and made a low of $3.35 ¼ on Dec. 12    

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting increases approx. 13% from May 6-13 to 26%.  There are mixed ideas on last week’s progress; some believe it could reach 25-30% in this today’s USDA Crop Progress report

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 26.3 mbu needed; 19.6 last week

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat planting increases approx. 16% from May 6-13 to approx. 67%.  Since 2009, the largest percentage increase in U.S. spring wheat planting over May 6-13 was 24% in 2017

·       T-storm Weather: Several waves of energy produce 0.50”-1.50” of rain Wed.-Fri. for most U.S. HRW wheat  

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLM18-$.17@$70.53; EBN, -$.16@$76.96; EBN-QCLN, +$0.01RBM-.0136;NGM, +.005HOM, -.0078

·       On Friday, cash ethanol markets were unchanged to lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.44, down $0.00375; Basis to Chicago—New York, +13 ½; Gulf, +9 ½; Dallas, +4 ½; Tampa, +17; and LA, +24 ½

·       On Friday, ethanol RINs were firmer: 2017’s up 2 at 28-31; and 2018’s firmed 1 ¼ to 32 ½-34

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread gained $.0048 on Friday to +$.72980/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &​nbsp;                     ​;     

  • Choice boxed beef values fell 10-cents on Friday to $230.97, but are still $2.67 higher compared to last week
  • Dressed steer weight for week end April 28: 850 lbs, down 6 lbs v. last week, 866.75 for 4-week avg. & 847 last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 87-cents on Friday to $72.45, and is $3.75 higher vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.33 on Fri. to $64.06.  May futures eased $0.175 but are still $1.24 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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