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MARKET TREND Mostly lower CK, Down 2,SK, Up 3, WK, Down 5

April 16, 2018 07:55 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:27 AM (2 hours ago)
to MorningJim


  • MARKET TREND—Mostly lower: CK, -$.0175; SK, +$.0075; WK, -$.0450; KWK, -$.0975
  • MACRO: Markets said to be hopeful that U.S. led air-strikes on Syria will not escalate into a larger conflict. U.S. retail sales data out today.  Asia: Mostly lower:Nikkei, +0.26%; Shanghai, -1.53%; Hang Seng, -1.60%.  EUROPE: Sort of firmer: DAX,+0.19 FTSE, -0.39%; CAC, +0.01%.  WALL STREET: Futures are strongly higher: DOW,+143; S&P, +15.75; NAS, +41.00.  EXTERNALS: Apr Gold-$3.80 @ $1,341; May crude: -$0.95 @ $66.44

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., weekend weather was near expectations.  A round of light rain & snow occurs Tue.-Wed. within the northern third of half of the Corn Belt & Plains, including all areas affected by this weekend’s blizzard, & including a swath of heavy accumulations in excess of 6” in/near the intersection of IA-MN-NE-SD.  A major system moves across the southern half of the central U.S. Fri.-Sat., producing heavy rain across the southwest half of the Corn Belt, Delta & central & southern Plains

·       CK, down $.0175 @ $3.8450; CN, down $.0175 @ $3.9275. The funds ended the week selling 6 K              

  • SK, up $.0075 @ $10.55; SN, up $.01 @ $10.66. Funds: sold 4 SB, 2 SBM, 1 SBO.Board crush:  $1.34, +3; LY: $.86
  • WK, down $.0450 @ $4.68; WN, down $.05 @ $4.8425.  Moisture prospects encouraged selling of 7 K                       


  • T-storm Weather: In the U.S., challenging conditions for corn planting continue over the next two weeks as storm systems pass every 3-5 days, causing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal precip to affect a wide area
  • Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 56.3 mbu needed; 76.3 last week.  Milo—4.0 needed; 9.7 last week

·       ATI Research: The USDA Crop Progress report will be released at 3:00 pm CDT.  U.S. corn planting progress for the week ending April 15 last year was 6% and the 5-year average is approx. 5%

·       May 2018 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.86 ¼.  One year ago, May 2017 corn futures settled at $3.71


·       ATI Research: Combined soybean production of Argentina-Brazil-Paraguay is projected to be 6.0 billion bushels, or 37% larger than the record U.S. 2017 soybean harvest of 4.3 billion

  • Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 25.0 mbu needed; 13.7 last week
  • NOPA crush report released at 11:00 am CDT; trade looking for March soybean crush of 170 mbu v. 153 last year

·       T-storm Weather: Widespread rain (and some snow) break drought for most U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains on Friday; 1.00”-2.00” affects a wide area, though best chances are just north and east of the OK and TX panhandles

  • Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 22.1 needed; 15.8 last week


·       Lower: CLK18-$0.95 @ $65.44; EBN, -$1.03 @ $70.90; EBN-QCLN-$0.13RBK,-.0249NGK, +.011HOK, -.0289

·       On Friday, cash ethanol markets were mostly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.48, up $0.0125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9 ¾; Gulf, +8 ½; Dallas, +5 ½; Tampa, +17 ½; and LA, +24 

·       On Friday, ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s up 1 at 29-32; but 2018’s down ½ at 35-36 ½

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened $.0208 on Friday to +$.57740/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &nbs​p;        

  • Choice boxed beef values increased 13-cents on Friday to $212.61 but are still $1.70 lower compared to last week 
  • Moderate cash cattle trade developed on Fri. with prices in Kansas at $120, which is $2 to $3 higher than last week
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up 11-cents on Fri. at $65.62 but is still down 44-cents vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.26 on Fri. to $53.23.  May futures increased $0.375 and are $16.47 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather


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