HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly higher: CK, steady; SK, +$.0250; WK, +$.0325; KWK, +$.0500
• MACRO: EU trade chief heading to DC in attempt to get tariff exclusion; Facebook faux pas may lead to tougher data protection rules. Asia: A little higher:  Nikkei, -0.47%; Shanghai, +0.34%; Hang Seng, +0.11%.  EUROPE: Ditto: DAX, 0.00%; FTSE,+01.16%; CAC, -0.01%.  WALL STREET:  Futures look weaker—DOW, -51; S&P, -3.00;NAS, -24.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: +0.14 @ 90.07; Apr Gold: -$6.00 @ $1,312; Apr crude: +$.45 @ $62.51

·       T-storm Weather: In South America, scattered thunderstorms affect Argentina withinFriday-Sunday (March 23-25) as a strong system passes, especially in northern areas.  Thunderstorms affect varying areas of Brazil at varying times, resulting in near- or above-normal rainfall for ~85% of second-crop corn.  In the U.S., significant rainfall is probable at some point from Sunday (March 25) forward in key HRW wheat areas of the Plains given the number & size of systems that pass within March 25 - April 1

·       CK, unch @ $3.75; CN, unch @ $3.8325.  Active selling—20 K—weekend Arg rain, trade worries, etc.      

• SK, up $.0250 @ $10.25; SN, up $.0250 @ $10.36. Funds: Sold 25 K SB, 15 K SBM, 0 K SBO. Board crush:  $1.19, -4; LY: $.79
• WK, up $.0325 @ $4.54; WN, up $.0325 @ $4.71.  Equally heavy selling in wheat, 20 K estimated              

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, most likely scenario is for 0.50”-1.00” of rain south to contrast with 1.00”-2.00” north over Fri.-Sun., potentially aiding immature corn in the north though the north only accounts for ~10% of corn output

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is steady at 34.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward.  Some of the later-planted corn could probably be helped a little by additional rain, but it must occur within the next 2-3 weeks

• ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 2.095 bbu vs. USDA at 2.127 bbu
• USDA reported Monday that U.S. 17/18 corn exports through March 15 totaled 856 mbu v. 1192 mbu last year (-28%)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, most likely scenario is 0.50”-1.00” of rain south and 1.00”-2.00” north over Fri.-Sun., potentially aiding immature soybeans in the north though the north only accounts for ~20% of soybean production

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is lowered 1.0 MMT to 42.0; neutral to lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 561 mbu vs. USDA at 555 mbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 496 mbu vs. USDA at 510 mbu

• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a stormy and generally cool pattern dominates into early April.  There are multiple opportunities for significant rain in HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains from March 25 forward

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLJ18, +$.45 @ $62.51; EBK, +$.66 @ $66.71; EBK-QCLK, +$0.01; RBJ, +.0158;NGJ, +.007; HOJ, +.0200

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.43625, down $0.03; Basis to Chicago—New York, +12 ¾; Gulf, +13 ¾; Dallas, +7 ¼; Tampa, +20 ¼; and LA, +23 ¾

·       On Monday, ethanol RINs eased: 2016’s fell 1 ½ to 36-39; 2017’s declined 1 ½ to 38-41; and 2018’s off 1 ½ to 39-42

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread leaked out $.0094 on Monday, to +$.4619/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               &n​bsp;     

• Choice boxed beef values declined 72-cents on Monday to $224.87, but are still 97-cents higher vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $1.12 v. last week at $127.91/cwt, but is down $0.73 v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 43-cents on Monday to $71.61, and is down $2.81 vs. last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $46.38/cwt vs. last week’s $44.29, last month’s $47.21 & last year’s $46.04

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather