HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—mostly firmer: CZ: up $.0050; SX: up $.0350; WZ: up $.01; KWZ: up $.0150

·       MACRO: Global markets are languishing today; wire services keep talking about the Fed meeting where no rate increase is expected but timing on portfolio unwinding may be announced. ASIA—Higher:  Nikkei, +0.05%; Shanghai,+0.28%; Hang Seng, 0.27%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher: DAX,-0.05%; FTSE, +0.05%; CAC, +0.09%.   WALL STREET—Futures are undecided—DOW, 0; S&P, +0.25; NAS, -0.25. EXTERNALS:  $ Index: -.101 @ 91.460; Gold: +$7.90 @ $1,315;  Oct crude:+$0.56 @ $50.04/bl. 

• T-storm Weather: Unusually heavy rain focuses on Plains & northwest Corn Belt over the next week, preventing dryness from being an issue for most HRW wheat this autumn as heavy totals of 1.50"-3.00"+ unfold – especially Fri.-Mon. in key wheat areas of central & southern Plains (& the western quarter to third of corn & soybeans).  Sharply drier & warmer weather occur to the east, allowing corn / soybean harvesting & SRW wheat planting to advance across the Delta & southeast half of the Corn Belt
• CZ, up $.0050 @ $3.4875; CH, up $.0075 @ $3.6150.  The funds sold an estimated 7 K on Tuesday                     
• SX​, up $.0350 @ $9.69; SF, up $.0425 @ $9.8025.  Funds: Sold 4 SB,3 SBM, bot 3 SBO.  Board crush: $.85,-3; LY, $.71
• WZ, up $.01 @ $4.44; WH, up $.0075 @ $4.6475.  Fund selling Tuesday—3 K   

 CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather: Mainly warm, dry weather is forecast for one week across the southeast half of the central U.S.  Therefore, corn harvest is likely to race forward across the Delta & southeast half of Corn Belt into at least late-month
• ATI Research: Although the export model is suggesting U.S. corn exports over the up-coming 4-week period to be in the 30-39 mbu range, bias is in the mid to the high 20s

·       Consultant: Full-season corn acreage in Brazil could fall 10%, while safrinha (double crop) corn acres may be steady

·       Ethanol margins: $0.34 per gallon—up vs. $0.30 last week but below $0.55 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports has increased from 25-30 mbu/week to 30-35 mbu range

·       T-storm Weather: Some frost is probably in the northern Corn Belt late next week and weekend, but a killing freeze (minimums of 28 or colder) is unlikely due to blustery winds and only a marginally-cold air mass

·       Chicago December 2017 wheat futures closed at $4.43on Tue.  One year ago, December 2016 wheat settled at $4.06

·       T-storm Weather: Rains aid Western Australian wheat over the next 7 to 10 days, but miss the driest area including ~30% in New South Wales and Queensland

ENERGY

·       Mostly up: CLV17, +$.56 @ $50.04; EBX, +$0.48 @ $55.62; EBX-QCLX, -$.07; RBV, +.0061; NGV, -.011; HOV, +.0103

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.6 (+1.4); Gasoline, -2.1 (-5.1); Distillates, -1.5 (-6.1)

·       Cash ethanol markets posted slight declines on Tuesday: Chicago and Gulf off ½; New York down 1 ¾; Dallas and Tampa eased 1; and LA was ½ lower at $1.71 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were down slightly on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s fell ¾ to 81 ½-82 ¾ 

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread lost $.0046 Tuesday, and narrowed into to +$.0980/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &​nbsp;                     

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• Choice boxed beef values declined 51-cents on Tuesday to $192.11, but are still up $1.32 compared to a week ago
• Pre-report estimates for Friday’s Cattle on Feed: Sep. 1 On-Feed 102.7%; Aug. Placed 97.3%; & Aug. Marketed 105.8%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 41.30 on Tuesday to $75.90, and is $3.79 lower vs. last week

• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.94 on Mon. to $61.88.  October futures gained $0.125 but are still $1.755 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather